A model that says 70% should be right 70% of the time.
This page holds the model to exactly that. Every resolved read is a chip you can count, one ledger line per confidence band, graded against what the model said — nothing edited, nothing removed.
Band reads
129
Winners called
74%
Typical gap to close
4.4pp
Accuracy score (Brier)
0.156
Said vs happened · every read, counted129 chips on the table
Calibration ledgerLocked before each fight · nothing edited · nothing removed
winner delivered miss the tick = winners it said it would deliver
№ 01
40–45%13 reads
said 5.6 · delivered 10 of 13
43%→77%
32 above said
№ 02
45–50%9 reads
said 4.3 · delivered 5 of 9
48%→56%
6 above said
№ 03
50–55%11 reads
said 5.8 · delivered 6 of 11
53%→55%
honest
№ 04
55–60%13 reads
said 7.5 · delivered 3 of 13
58%→23%
32 below said
№ 05
60–65%10 reads
said 6.3 · delivered 7 of 10
63%→70%
5 above said
№ 06
65–70%6 reads
said 4.1 · delivered 5 of 6
68%→83%
13 above said
№ 07
70–75%18 reads
said 13.1 · delivered 14 of 18
№ 08
75–80%10 reads
said 7.8 · delivered 10 of 10
78%→100%
20 above said
№ 09
80–85%9 reads
said 7.5 · delivered 9 of 9
83%→100%
15 above said
№ 10
85–90%20 reads
said 17.6 · delivered 18 of 20
№ 11
90–95%8 reads
said 7.4 · delivered 7 of 8
93%→88%
2 below said
№ 12
95–100%2 reads
said 2.0 · delivered 2 of 2
98%→100%
honest
Sum · 129 reads · 96 delivered · 33 missed · 74% winners delivered3 of 12 bands inside their stated range · Brier 0.156
The line of honesty
Filled to the tick = honest.
Every read is a chip you can count. Filled chips are winners the band delivered; hollow chips are misses. The dashed tick marks how many winners the band said it would deliver — a band that means what it says fills right up to its tick.
Fill past the tick and the band was under-confident; stop short and it was over-confident. Either way the chips are all on the table — including the bands with only four or five reads, where one result moves the whole line.
Beat the read · graded boutsno numbers shown until you commit
bout 1 of 5 · UFC Fight Nightyou 0 / 5model 0 / 5
Who wins? You call it first — the model already has.
vs
Model output for research and analysis only. Past model performance does not predict future results.
Analysis tool. We do not facilitate or place bets. 21+. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
