The record · graded in public
PropsLock publishes a probability before the contest and it is graded here afterwards — winners, misses, and the gap to the closing market. Records are kept per sport and never averaged together: a fight card and a football slate are different populations, and one number over both would describe neither. Open a sport to read its full record.
MMA record
Better calibrated than the market on 12 of 21 graded cards.
Pooled Brier .1594 vs market .1598 · n=187 anchored bouts · lower is better · the margin is small and stated, not hidden
155 / 207 called
Every resolved read, graded against the result — card by card.
College football record
Every read, graded. Misses included.
18 / 18 called
Every graded slate read, in the frame the read was made.
Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons; every PropsLock read and result remains on the record unchanged.