Terms of Service
These Terms of Service (the “Terms”) are a contract between you and PropsMath LLC (“PropsMath,” “we,” “us,” or “our”). They govern your use of propsmath.com and the probability reads, research, public track record, and other content we make available there (together, the “Service”).
You accept these Terms when you confirm that you accept them at our age check, when you start a paid subscription, or when you otherwise use a signed-in part of the Service. If you do not agree, do not use the Service. The Privacy Policy and the Refund Policy are part of these Terms.
1. What the Service is — and is not
PropsMath is a sports-analytics publication. We publish probability reads for mixed martial arts and college football, the reasoning behind them where we have it, and a public, loss-inclusive track record (the “Record”) that grades locked reads against official results. Not every locked read is graded: a read may be retired ungraded if no official result is recorded for it within 14 days, and an MMA read is not graded when its bout ends in a draw or no contest. Section 8 explains these cases and how the Record shows them.
- MMA reads are estimates produced by our own model, PropsLock. Some are published as a direction only: the fighter PropsLock favors, with no probability.
- College football reads start from the market consensus: the median win probability implied by the sportsbooks quoting a game, with the bookmaker margin removed. PropsLock’s calibration step may adjust that figure or pass it through unchanged. When a game is quoted only with a point spread, the read is the win probability that spread implies, with no calibration adjustment and capped at 99.5% (see Methodology). When no market is quoted, the read is PropsLock’s own team-strength estimate.
- PropsLock selections in college football. For games its team-strength ratings cover, PropsLock also names the side it rates stronger. A selection is a side, not a probability. It appears beside the market consensus on games with a market, and on its own, marked “Direction only,” where no probability is published. Each selection is recorded on the Record and graded the same way as a read, with the same exceptions; the Record may label it a “pick” and counts it separately from the market-based reads.
The Service is for research and informational purposes. It is not a sportsbook, bookmaker, casino, prediction market, broker, or betting exchange. We do not accept wagers of any kind, hold customer funds, or place, broker, solicit, or facilitate bets, and we take no sportsbook, casino, or prediction-market affiliate revenue. Nothing on the Service is betting, investment, financial, or legal advice, and we are not your advisor.
Every read — a probability, a direction, or a selection — is analysis. It is not a tip, instruction, or suggestion to wager, and it is not any sportsbook’s offer. Where the Record calls a selection a “pick,” it means the side PropsLock named, not a recommendation to wager. You decide what, if anything, to do with the information, and anything you do with third parties is solely between you and them. Past performance does not predict future results: the Record reports what happened, including misses, and is not a promise about future reads.
2. Eligibility
You may use the Service only if all of the following are true:
- You are at least 21 years old. We apply this age floor everywhere, including where a lower age would be enough to form a contract. Before a signed-in account can see reads or subscribe, we ask for your date of birth once and use it only for this age check and the under-13 rule below; we never store the date of birth. On your account we store only that you were verified as 21 or older, the age floor that check applied (21) and the time of that verification, or, if an under-21 attempt is refused, the time of that refusal. If you are under 21, we refuse the attempt and record that refusal on your account as a timestamp only. That refusal is final for the account: the age check cannot be taken again. If you believe it is a mistake, write to us at the address in section 20.
- You can form a binding contract.
- You are not in a place where we do not offer the Service (section 3), and you are not barred from receiving services under United States law, including trade sanctions.
- If you use the Service for an organization, you have authority to bind it, and “you” includes that organization.
The Service is not directed to children. If the date of birth entered at the age check shows that the person is under 13, we do not keep the account: we delete it and the information connected to it, as our Privacy Policy describes, and the same email address cannot be used to sign up again for 12 months: an account with that address on it is deleted when it reaches the age check, whatever date of birth is entered. If this happened because of a mistake, write to us at contact@propsmath.com.
We may suspend or close an account if we reasonably believe these conditions are not met.
3. Where we offer the Service
- Washington State. The Service is not available in Washington State. Visitors there can reach only our legal pages, our methodology, and the billing portal, so a subscriber can still cancel.
- European Union, European Economic Area, and United Kingdom. We do not offer accounts in these countries. Signing up, signing in, and starting a subscription are refused from there, and payments with a billing address there are declined. Our public pages stay readable.
We decide location from signals such as the country and region our hosting provider derives from your IP address. Those signals are not perfect, and we do not promise to detect every case. You may not use a VPN, proxy, or false information to get around these restrictions. We may add or remove places, and we may close an account that is used from a place where we do not offer the Service. If we close your account for that reason, or you tell us you can no longer use the Service because of where you are, we cancel the subscription and refund unused prepaid fees as the Refund Policy says. These are our operating rules, not a statement about the law where you are.
4. Accounts
You sign in with an email address or a Google account through our sign-in provider. Keep your account information accurate and your sign-in private; you are responsible for activity on your account. Tell us at contact@propsmath.com if you think someone else has used it.
We may refuse, suspend, or close an account, or limit features, if you break these Terms, if payment fails, if the law requires it, or if we reasonably believe the account creates a legal, security, or abuse risk.
5. Plans, prices, and promotions
A free account shows a limited selection of reads. Pro is the one paid plan we sell. It costs US $19 per month or US $190 per year, plus any tax we are required to collect. The pricing page lists what each plan includes, and checkout shows the plan, price, and billing period before you pay, and we charge nothing until you confirm the purchase there. The Plus plan is no longer sold; existing Plus and complimentary access continues on the terms it was given until we tell you otherwise.
GODAWGS promotion. The promotion code GODAWGS takes US $19 off the first invoice of a new Pro subscription. It is for first-time customers only, can be used once per customer, and can be redeemed until 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 11, 2026. On the monthly plan the first month costs $0; on the annual plan the first year costs $171. The promotion has no cash value, and it does not change the renewal price.
We may change prices or plan contents. A price change applies to you only from your next renewal after we have given you notice, and never to a period you have already paid for.
6. Automatic renewal and cancellation
Your Pro subscription renews automatically at the end of each billing period — every month at $19 or every year at $190 — and the card on file is charged at the start of each new period until you cancel. When a promotion brings today’s total to $0, checkout still saves your card, and it is charged the full price at the first renewal unless you cancel before then. By subscribing you authorize us, through our payment processor, to charge the first period and each renewal. We disclose these terms before collecting billing information: the pricing page shows them before checkout, and checkout shows them again above the button that confirms the purchase.
How to cancel. Open Account, choose Manage billing, and cancel in the billing portal. No email or call is needed. Cancellation takes effect at the end of the period you have already paid for: you keep Pro until then and are not charged again (a subscription paused for a failed payment is different: read Failed payments below before you cancel). If we ever present a retention offer when you cancel, you can still decline it and complete the cancellation right away. Cancelling is not a refund; refunds are covered by the Refund Policy.
Cancelling by email. You can also email us at the address in section 20 and we will cancel for you, for example if you cannot reach your account where we do not offer the Service. An emailed cancellation of an active subscription works like one in the billing portal: support processes it within one business day, it takes effect at the end of the period you have already paid for (for a GODAWGS first month that cost $0, the end of that month), and you keep Pro until then and are not charged again. Your cancellation counts from the moment your email reaches contact@propsmath.com, not from when support processes it. If a renewal is charged after your email arrived, we refund that renewal in full and end the subscription when we issue the refund, without you having to ask again. That includes a renewal charged after your paid period ended but after your email arrived, the first $19 charge after a $0 GODAWGS month, and a failed renewal payment that is retried successfully after your email arrived. If your subscription is paused for a failed payment, the period you paid for has already ended, so the cancellation takes effect when support processes it, and a retried payment that goes through after your email arrived is refunded in full as described above. A cancellation that comes with a refund, such as the refund of unused prepaid fees in section 3 when you tell us you can no longer use the Service because of where you are, is different: it takes effect when the refund is issued, as the Refund Policy describes, and a renewal charged after your email arrived is still refunded in full.
Reminders and receipts. Our payment processor emails a receipt for each payment and a reminder before a renewal.
Failed payments. If a renewal payment fails, paid access pauses while the payment is retried. If every retry fails, the subscription is cancelled and the account returns to the free plan. A subscription paused for a failed payment is best cancelled by email (see Cancelling by email): support cancels it when it processes your email, and that stops the retries. A cancellation in the billing portal takes effect at the end of the current billing period, and the payment may be retried until then. If a retry is charged after you cancelled, either way, we refund it in full: for an emailed cancellation without you having to ask, and for a cancellation in the billing portal when you ask us, as the Refund Policy describes.
Payment processing. Stripe processes payments. We never see or store your full card number.
7. Refunds
The Refund Policy governs refunds. In short: cancelling stops future charges but does not refund the current period; a new subscriber can ask for a full refund of the first paid charge within 7 days of it, and an annual subscriber can ask within 30 calendar days of an annual charge for a prorated refund of the unused part of the year; while the subscription is live we cancel it when we issue either refund, so paid access ends then (the 7-day and 30-day refunds still apply whether you ask before or after deleting your account; after a deletion, which already cancelled the subscription, the refund is issued on its own); we refund billing errors and wherever the law requires it; if you cancel by email, a renewal charged after your email arrived is refunded in full and the subscription ends; if your subscription is paused for a failed payment, a retry charged after you cancelled is refunded in full, for an emailed cancellation without you having to ask and for a billing-portal cancellation when you ask us; and a full refund of a charge cancels an active subscription and ends paid access immediately. If this summary and the Refund Policy differ, the Refund Policy controls.
8. The Record and corrections
An MMA read that was recorded after its card’s recorded start time is shown on the Record as “recorded mid-card, not counted” and is left out of every tally, calibration figure, and card verdict. When we know only a card’s date and not its start time, a read on it is counted and is not shown as locked before the card. A college football read recorded after its game’s kickoff is counted in the college football tally like any other read. Counted reads are graded against the official result, and the Record includes misses. A read shown before an event that is never recorded on the Record, such as a research lean, is not graded. If a result is officially changed after grading, we may regrade the read and show the correction. Some locked reads are never graded. A read is retired ungraded if no official result is recorded for it within 14 days of its event’s start. A read with no recorded start time may be retired the same way once 14 days have passed since it was published. Some college football reads in the 2026 season were retired sooner, under an earlier rule. An MMA read is not graded when its bout ends in a draw or no contest, or when the winner is a fighter who was not in the bout the read covered, such as a late replacement. Reads on events that are cancelled, postponed, or end without an official result, and reads the Record marks as not counted, may also be voided or left ungraded instead of graded. The Record may show a read that is not graded as “retired ungraded,” “retired early” or “abandoned,” as “not graded” with the reason (such as “Not graded · draw,” “Not graded · no contest,” “Not graded · void,” “Not graded · abandoned,” “Not graded · superseded” or “Not graded · no graded winner”), as “no graded winner,” or, for an MMA read, as “recorded mid-card, not counted,” or it may leave the read out; either way it counts as neither a hit nor a miss. An anonymous calibration log of published reads and outcomes, with no name or account identifier, is kept even if you delete your account.
9. Third-party sports data
Scores, plays, box scores, fight statistics, results, schedules, and market prices on the Service come from third-party data providers and public sources that we do not control. That data can arrive late, be incomplete, or be revised or corrected after we show it, and we may update what we display and regrade reads when it changes. We provide third-party data as we receive it, without any warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.
PropsMath is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any league, promotion, athletic conference, school, the NCAA, any athlete, or any sportsbook. Their names appear only to identify the events and markets we write about.
10. Your licence and acceptable use
We give you a limited, personal, non-exclusive, non-transferable, revocable licence to use the Service for your own non-commercial research, subject to a current subscription where one is required. Unless we agree in writing, you may not:
- scrape, crawl, or systematically download reads, Record data, or other content (ordinary browsing is fine);
- republish, resell, redistribute, or commercially exploit reads;
- copy, resell, or redistribute the third-party sports data shown on the Service, on its own or as part of another product;
- share paid access or your sign-in;
- reverse engineer the Service, except where a law that cannot be waived allows it;
- interfere with the Service or get around its limits, including its location, age, payment, or sign-in controls;
- use the Service to build a competing forecasting product;
- present a read as a sportsbook line, as our instruction to wager, or as official league or NCAA output; or
- use the Service for anything unlawful.
11. Conduct
You may not give a false age, location, or identity, use a payment method you are not authorized to use, upload malware, or try to manipulate model inputs, grading, or the Record. You may not use the Service in connection with match-fixing, non-public inside information about a contest, or any attempt to influence an event’s outcome.
12. Ownership
We own our models, software, reads, and the Record, and the related intellectual property. Third-party sports data belongs to its providers and is shown under their terms. We may use feedback you send without owing you anything for it.
13. Service providers
We run the Service with outside providers for sign-in, payments, hosting, data storage, logging, and analytics. The Privacy Policy lists them. We are not responsible for services we do not control, and their own terms apply when you use them directly, for example Stripe’s checkout and billing portal.
14. Ending your use, and account deletion
You can stop using the Service at any time. Once you are past the age check, you can delete your account yourself from the account area. If you cannot reach the account area, email contact@propsmath.com from the address on the account and we will delete it. Deletion first cancels any subscription immediately, so paid access ends at once. Deleting does not by itself refund the unused part of the period, but the 7-day and 30-day refunds in section 7 and the Refund Policy still apply, whether you ask before or after you delete the account; if you want to keep access until the period ends, cancel in the billing portal first and delete the account after the period ends. If the cancellation cannot be completed, nothing is deleted and you are told. The Privacy Policy explains what is deleted and what is kept.
We may suspend or end your access if you break these Terms, if the law requires it, to manage a security or abuse risk, or if we stop offering the Service. If we stop offering the Service, the Refund Policy says what we refund. Sections that by their nature should continue after your access ends do continue, including sections 1, 8, 9, 10, 12, and 14 through 21, and the refund terms in sections 3, 6, and 7 and in the Refund Policy.
15. Disclaimers
THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE.” TO THE FULLEST EXTENT THE LAW ALLOWS, WE DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TITLE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. We do not warrant that reads, the Record, or third-party data are accurate, complete, or timely; that any read will match a future result; that the Service will be uninterrupted, secure, or error-free; or that it is available everywhere. Some states do not allow these disclaimers; there, we disclaim only as far as the law allows.
16. Limitation of liability
To the fullest extent the law allows, we are not liable for indirect, incidental, special, consequential, exemplary, or punitive damages, or for lost profits, data, goodwill, or business, even if we were told they were possible. This includes any loss from decisions you make using the Service. Our total liability for all claims is limited to the greater of what you paid us in the 12 months before the claim and US $50. These limits apply whatever the legal theory, but not where a state’s law does not allow them, such as for fraud or some personal-injury claims.
17. Indemnity
You will defend and indemnify PropsMath LLC and its members, officers, employees, and contractors against claims arising from your misuse of the Service, your breach of these Terms, your breach of the law, or your republication or commercial use of reads. We may take over the defense of a claim, and you will cooperate.
18. Governing law and disputes
North Carolina law governs these Terms, without its conflict-of-law rules. Nothing here takes away consumer-protection rights you have under the law of the state where you live that cannot be waived.
Disputes go to the state courts in Henderson County, North Carolina, or the United States District Court for the Western District of North Carolina, except that either of us may seek urgent relief to protect intellectual property in any court with jurisdiction. We do not require arbitration, and we do not ask you to give up class actions or a jury trial. Any right you have to bring a consumer claim in your home county that cannot be waived is not waived.
19. Changes to these Terms
We may update these Terms. We will post the new version here with a new effective date and a line saying what changed. For a material change, we will notify account holders by email or by a notice on the Service a reasonable time before it takes effect, unless the law requires the change sooner. If you do not agree, cancel and stop using the Service before the change takes effect. Using the Service after the effective date means you accept the change.
20. Notices
We may send notices to the email address on your account or post them on the Service. Send legal notices to: PropsMath LLC, PO Box 73, Mountain Home, NC 28758, +1 (678) 571-6682, contact@propsmath.com.
California users. Under California Civil Code section 1789.3, California users are entitled to this consumer rights notice. The Service is provided by PropsMath LLC, PO Box 73, Mountain Home, NC 28758, telephone +1 (678) 571-6682. Its prices are set out in section 5. For a complaint, contact us at the same address or phone number, or at contact@propsmath.com. You may also contact the Complaint Assistance Unit of the Division of Consumer Services of the California Department of Consumer Affairs in writing at Department of Consumer Affairs, Consumer Information Center, 1625 North Market Blvd., Suite N 112, Sacramento, CA 95834, or by telephone at (800) 952-5210.
21. General
These Terms, with the Privacy Policy and the Refund Policy, are the whole agreement between you and us about the Service. If a part is unenforceable, the rest still applies. Not enforcing a term is not a waiver. You may not transfer these Terms without our consent; we may transfer them as part of a merger, sale, or reorganization. There are no third-party beneficiaries. We are not liable for delays or failures caused by events beyond our reasonable control. Headings are for convenience, and “including” means “including without limitation.”
22. Related pages
See the Privacy Policy, the Refund Policy, and Responsible Use. Responsible Use is an information page, not part of this contract. Questions: contact@propsmath.com.