PropsMath

PropsMath · the read on every fight

The model is alive.

Every public signal on every fighter, fused into one probability per bout — locked before the walkouts, graded in public after the result.

Act II · The card

The card locks, then drifts into the record.

UFC Fight Night. One ring per bout — each read freezes before the walkouts, timestamped to the record. No retroactive edits, ever.

  • 01Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov82% · mkt 81%
  • 02Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov45% · mkt 49%
  • 03Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman87% · mkt 87%
  • 04Damian Rzepecki vs Magomed Zaynukov31% · mkt 29%
  • 05Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune73% · mkt 73%
  • 06Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev69% · mkt 69%

Act III · The grade

7 / 11

Winners called at UFC Fight Night

Every call, scored in public.

A read the model called right stays green; one it missed reads oxblood — and stays on the record, first-class. The model is graded where you can see it.

Act IV · The record

A model that says 70% should be right 70% of the time.

91
Resolved reads
71%
Winners called
4.3pp
Typical gap vs closing
0.164
Brier score

The columns are the live calibration record — what the model said, next to what actually happened.