About PropsMath
A model that has to prove it.
PropsMath is a quantitative forecasting model for combat sports. It compiles every public signal it can reach on a matchup, turns that into one calibrated win probability per fighter, locks it before the walk, and grades itself against the result — in public, fight by fight. The whole product is built around a single promise: read the card sharper than the market, and show the receipts.
Why it exists
Anyone can claim to be a sharp. The honest version is a number that's written down before the fight and scored after it — never edited, never quietly deleted. PropsMath is that scoreboard. If the model is wrong, the miss stays on the record and feeds back into the next forecast.
What we hold ourselves to
- Analytical only. We publish probabilities, not betting advice. We don't take wagers, hold funds, or affiliate with sportsbooks.
- Locked & graded. Every forecast is timestamped before the event and scored against the official result.
- No sauce. The Signal Fusion Nexus shows which sources moved a number — never a fabricated per-source probability.
- Real photos, fairly used. Headshots are CC-licensed, shown unmodified, and credited.
Changelog
The atom visual now shows per-source influence and a live model-vs-market edge on every card.
Every forecast since Oct 2024 is graded against the result and published — calibration, Brier, and gap-to-closing-market.
Forecasts lock pre-walk and grade live against the ESPN feed, fight by fight.
Contact
General: hello@propsmath.com · Methodology: methodology@propsmath.com · Image takedowns: images@propsmath.com.
Analytical forecasts only — not a sportsbook. 21+. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.