Methodology · nothing proprietary hidden
Four movements, in order, for every bout on every card. The inputs are public, the process is fixed, and the output is graded where you can see it. Follow one real, resolved bout down the right-hand rail as it assembles.
Market-implied probabilities from sportsbooks and prediction exchanges, career metrics from fighter history, and crowd tendencies — every public signal on every fighter, gathered before the walkouts. The strongest available market line anchors the read.
Nurullo Aliev: market anchor 67
The signals blend into a single calibrated model probability per outcome, weighted market-first. When the fundamentals disagree with the market, the divergence is flagged — never buried inside the number. The read stays anchored to the market by design and can lean away from it only within a bounded tilt, so where it agrees with the market, that agreement is a structural feature of the method, not a coincidence.
The read: 74% Nurullo Aliev · +7pp vs market
Every read is timestamped and written to a permanent record before the event, and never edited afterward. The model's read exists on the record before the first bell — that is the entire point.
Written to the record · Jul 18, 8:22 PM PDT
Each read is scored against the actual outcome, fight by fight, event by event. The rolling calibration record is public — including every miss — and feeds back into the next card's weighting.
Nurullo Aliev — called
Signal quality gates the verdict. A bout with thin data gets a smaller claim — or, when neither source is usable, no graded call at all.
Full
Market line and fighter-history stats both present. Full read available.
Partial
One source is missing. The read leans on less, and the claim shrinks accordingly.
No read
Neither the market line nor usable fighter-history stats were available. The bout is shown, but no call is graded.
PropsMath is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook. We do not facilitate or place bets. Questions about methodology: methodology@propsmath.com.
