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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

Overview MMA CFB

The record · calibration in public

When PropsLock says 70%, it should be right 70% of the time.

This page holds PropsLock, the PropsMath forecast model, to exactly that. We grade counted reads against the official result and compare what happened in each confidence band with what PropsLock said, misses included.

Track record · the running record

Level with the market on 14 of 27 graded cards.

Pooled Brier .1730 vs market .1721 · n=244 anchored bouts · lower is better · the margin is small and stated, not hidden

graded calls

196 / 264

reliability

bandsaidhappenedn

40–45%42.5%50%24

45–50%47.5%45%20

50–55%52.5%57%21

55–60%

PropsLock output for research and analysis only. Past model performance does not predict future results.

PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

How these reads are built

57.5%

48%

60–65%62.5%69%29

65–70%67.5%86%14

70–75%72.5%69%45

75–80%77.5%90%30

80–85%82.5%79%47

85–90%87.5%84%44

90–95%92.5%88%17

95–100%97.5%100%2

the spine · next on top

market ↑ · propslock ↓ · right is better

OCT

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

14 bouts

70 reads · receipt manifest b960d456ab4cf4bc… · locks at card start

pending · counted reads grade here

OCT

PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2

8 / 10 called