RecordHow accurate PropsLock has beenHow it worksHow the forecasts are built

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RecordHow accurate PropsLock has beenHow it worksHow the forecasts are built

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Forecast
Record
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One calibrated probability per contest — committed before it starts, graded in public after.

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UFC Live
Events
College football
Pricing

The record

Results
Track record
Methodology
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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

RecordHow accurate PropsLock has beenHow it worksHow the forecasts are built

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Overview MMA CFB

The record · calibration in public

When PropsLock says 70%, it should be right 70% of the time.

This page holds PropsLock, the PropsMath forecast model, to exactly that. Every resolved read is a chip you can count, one ledger line per confidence band, graded against what PropsLock said — nothing edited, nothing removed.

Track record · the running record

Better calibrated than the market on 12 of 21 graded cards.

Pooled Brier .1594 vs market .1598 · n=187 anchored bouts · lower is better · the margin is small and stated, not hidden

graded calls

155 / 207

reliability

bandsaidhappenedn

40–45%42.5%55%22

45–50%47.5%53%17

50–55%52.5%50%18

55–60%

PropsLock output for research and analysis only. Past model performance does not predict future results.

PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

How these reads are built

57.5%

43%

60–65%62.5%67%21

65–70%67.5%91%11

70–75%72.5%73%30

75–80%77.5%100%20

80–85%82.5%79%34

85–90%87.5%85%41

90–95%92.5%88%17

95–100%97.5%100%2

the spine · next on top

market ↑ · propslock ↓ · right is better

SEP

OKTAGON 93: ROUŠAL vs. MÅGÅRD

12 bouts · reads lock before the card

24 reads · receipt manifest 1e3472f3c3e94e71… · locks at card start

pending · grades here

SEP

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

8 / 13 called