Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
65 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
65 reads · receipt manifest cb8b3401786cf8f1… · locked
cb8b3401786cf8f10b10c05f3d26b10af2bec1411595ff66e542deb26972386f
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=65
018b3290373eaf0ca8c4f4c86978d7a986c698b5c131881da9b7a5f5ea252af5
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7e41aef448ea57f20be06f777d3ff1de014b7976acd5f0a9ed77e74a3a166058
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c2c2e3712d949a687ef38f25b8fe058b1c63c398b33ee60e645a1152f442ed87
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f0aa951965c789ed6ee59f26136bfc5ed3d65fcafa7880ff73f1e56c0e1981f5
f1629906f80dd2d25ad06484e5733d6005972e84cff9594ce27543244d9cf421
f26c6fd81184080c538546264837ffa3a7483819ea5a57a6b2964461ff8a93c4
f2f8bbc10b79a6e67ebf2852f6a836d7a3b97912752f61b72047fb3971e2d6d5
f568fb27ee0b32d5688ce337edacfd028bc221fe1f6c292768eec27afbfc4055
f6b48a056cab703c07a1ba85fccad6f579794c40f50e55d9a995bda167e8d2cb
f8c8171a0016f19d6bce7a9edf96ec1494f334db862b5519278b73a8bb5d5e66
fe1adea1ca4a1cc698723903e37b6d535502bb418b261f0bde788a2c7c6a9f48
ff3eb238ed48c25e3cecf235715ec2948ef7e9af4d4891a92abc756fa381287c3 reads on this card have not graded, and their figures are part of the paid product. All 3 reads closed without a result, so their probability and market figures are not published on this page.
moneyline · Anthony Hernandez · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 70.7% vs market 65.8% · edge 4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 919c6bc61a91f466… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
919c6bc61a91f466f8faf7d2fe64f097f381b2712d5cdb5ea1e41746bd748e8d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Anthony Hernandez" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7074142463925636" market_implied_probability="0.6582707025893704" edge="0.04914354380319319" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:53.749Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Gregory Rodrigues
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 95.0% · market not captured.
1,241 captures · Sun, Aug 16, 9:20 AM EDT to Sun, Aug 23, 5:20 AM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 6.3%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16T13:20:38.538Z | approaching | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| 2026-08-16T13:25:37.489Z | approaching | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| 2026-08-16T13:35:46.668Z | approaching | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| 2026-08-16T13:45:29.693Z | approaching | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| 2026-08-16T13:55:29.648Z | approaching | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| 2026-08-16T14:01:26.835Z | approaching | 60.8% |
moneyline · Gregory Rodrigues · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 29.3% vs market 34.2% · edge -4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 f568fb27ee0b32d5… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
f568fb27ee0b32d5688ce337edacfd028bc221fe1f6c292768eec27afbfc4055
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Gregory Rodrigues" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2925857536074363" market_implied_probability="0.3417292974106297" edge="-0.04914354380319336" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:53.806Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Gregory Rodrigues
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 5.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Vitor Petrino · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 62.9% vs market 57.3% · edge 5.6pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 10:35 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 83caf94297f52137… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 10:35 AM EDT
83caf94297f5213793fc59917055daec35dca14dc6bd5510506e9ee3481c7d96
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Vitor Petrino" tier="primary" model_probability="0.628793037689447" market_implied_probability="0.5767383958740886" edge="0.05205464181535846" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T14:35:31.688Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Vitor Petrino
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 60.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Serghei Spivac · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 37.1% vs market 42.7% · edge -5.6pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 10:35 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 7e41aef448ea57f2… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 10:35 AM EDT
7e41aef448ea57f20be06f777d3ff1de014b7976acd5f0a9ed77e74a3a166058
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Serghei Spivac" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.371206962310553" market_implied_probability="0.42326160412591146" edge="-0.05205464181535846" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T14:35:31.760Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Vitor Petrino
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 40.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Reinier de Ridder · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 84.4% vs market 76.6% · edge 7.8pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 cdbaf9593faffb3a… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
cdbaf9593faffb3aa5e65a9c03ecc766726aa02fb21353b6e4ad6974691eebd5
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Reinier de Ridder" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8442087367319234" market_implied_probability="0.7663551401869159" edge="0.07785359654500756" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:54.298Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Reinier de Ridder
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 66.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Roman Dolidze · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.6% vs market 23.4% · edge -7.8pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 9f25ac2b1a3fa4d7… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
9f25ac2b1a3fa4d75671ba2cdf3a8e3589b226d145d875b44781bf9465224c05
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Roman Dolidze" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.15579126326807663" market_implied_probability="0.23364485981308414" edge="-0.07785359654500751" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:54.325Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Reinier de Ridder
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 34.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Mason Jones · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 83.4% vs market 75.7% · edge 7.7pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 05b6bc81d30b4f12… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
05b6bc81d30b4f12c7e892d03d85c00f224d58ce91713f72566f4c01d3e7bb7d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Mason Jones" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8343260640847594" market_implied_probability="0.7571310458867301" edge="0.07719501819802932" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:54.747Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved MarQuel Mederos
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 79.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · MarQuel Mederos · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 16.6% vs market 24.3% · edge -7.7pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 64c4be9e727159dc… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
64c4be9e727159dc2981e3b5779c5cdbc25de77b9c4f035bd67dd13f3a2267d5
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="MarQuel Mederos" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.16567393591524066" market_implied_probability="0.24286895411326997" edge="-0.07719501819802932" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:54.780Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved MarQuel Mederos
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 21.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Carli Judice · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 85.9% vs market 82.9% · edge 3.0pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 f2f8bbc10b79a6e6… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
f2f8bbc10b79a6e67ebf2852f6a836d7a3b97912752f61b72047fb3971e2d6d5
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Carli Judice" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8590868871290647" market_implied_probability="0.8217998047435824" edge="0.037287082385482284" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.139Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Carli Judice
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 65.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Jeisla Chaves · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 14.1% vs market 17.1% · edge -3.0pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 c2c2e3712d949a68… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
c2c2e3712d949a687ef38f25b8fe058b1c63c398b33ee60e645a1152f442ed87
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jeisla Chaves" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.14091311287093525" market_implied_probability="0.1782001952564176" edge="-0.03728708238548234" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.188Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Carli Judice
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 35.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Anthony Wint · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 87.7% vs market 85.0% · edge 2.7pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 2efe6d38c316c3d5… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
2efe6d38c316c3d56ed16e1ae67bb197e2afc10f681c75b337954029a5af8f03
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Anthony Wint" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8767243499441427" market_implied_probability="0.8764940239043825" edge="0.00023032603976025356" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.601Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Anthony Wint
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 95.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Terrance Chatman · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 12.3% vs market 15.0% · edge -2.7pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 83492ace8022eee2… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
83492ace8022eee27decec7abc5df8c88807f4fa5ab1eb72d0dbf721122d7a08
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Terrance Chatman" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.12327565005585735" market_implied_probability="0.1235059760956175" edge="-0.00023032603976015642" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.631Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Anthony Wint
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 5.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Lerryan Douglas · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 84.5% vs market 76.4% · edge 8.2pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 744a42e0573bb16e… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
744a42e0573bb16e50a81b544da75e8ab1425f6deb406b0f4c71c96eb5642ff9
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Lerryan Douglas" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8453665420673107" market_implied_probability="0.7636627803117817" edge="0.08170376175552896" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.946Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Jamall Emmers
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 28.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Jamall Emmers · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.5% vs market 23.6% · edge -8.2pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 1094690fa28ac665… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
1094690fa28ac6658d89716dcd0f94c755442ed23aab7824dd1adb6b2effb677
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jamall Emmers" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.15463345793268932" market_implied_probability="0.23633721968821825" edge="-0.08170376175552893" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:55.972Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Jamall Emmers
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 72.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Shamil Gaziev · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 52.9% vs market 52.9% · edge 0.0pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 65e1013ec86c205f… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
65e1013ec86c205f391342044ce945e1b28a1fb73d983ff758c023a204c06f1a
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Shamil Gaziev" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5294740233812527" market_implied_probability="0.533678756476684" edge="-0.0042047330954312345" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:56.341Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Shamil Gaziev
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 19.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Kennedy Nzechukwu · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 47.1% vs market 47.1% · edge -0.0pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 452b542df95eb2a3… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
452b542df95eb2a3473669042da77548f79a9ed7bcfa2a03f6ffebf483aabf48
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Kennedy Nzechukwu" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4705259766187473" market_implied_probability="0.46632124352331605" edge="0.0042047330954312345" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:56.401Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Shamil Gaziev
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 81.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Nasrat Haqparast · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 46.1% vs market 47.2% · edge -1.1pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 be583737de47af0c… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
be583737de47af0c87cfda75084dd93691e0f2173daba4194f66bbf0b65597d7
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Nasrat Haqparast" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4611797982953607" market_implied_probability="0.4782608695652174" edge="-0.017081071269856696" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:56.739Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Chris Padilla
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 34.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Chris Padilla · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 53.9% vs market 52.8% · edge 1.1pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 ef7b884d2ade9828… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
ef7b884d2ade982802234b73c654d6cd40d12fcc3c447522ab7e2c5bd18bf6d7
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Chris Padilla" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5388202017046393" market_implied_probability="0.5217391304347826" edge="0.017081071269856696" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:56.769Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Chris Padilla
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 66.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Márcio Barbosa · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 87.0% vs market 86.5% · edge 0.5pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 4d3461ebee67fb83… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
4d3461ebee67fb832d8488fd394f51184bb92cdfd9bf7307d79c4b68bccc264f
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Márcio Barbosa" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8701667408972192" market_implied_probability="0.8579439252336449" edge="0.012222815663574305" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:57.159Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Márcio Barbosa
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Ryan Kuse · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 13.0% vs market 13.5% · edge -0.5pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 eb4be63cd010a897… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
eb4be63cd010a897da6342139bf8999359b3e4d43bf580adca88f8bfc1b8e57b
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Ryan Kuse" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.12983325910278073" market_implied_probability="0.14205607476635515" edge="-0.012222815663574416" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:57.191Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Márcio Barbosa
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Jackson McVey · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 65.0% vs market 61.6% · edge 3.4pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 83ee04390d8e39d7… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
83ee04390d8e39d7a61fa298790dffee9f9c6b9eefa75fa9c93ff996835eacac
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jackson McVey" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6495455642512841" market_implied_probability="0.6150104239054899" edge="0.03453514034579419" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:57.960Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Jackson McVey
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 61.0% · market not captured.
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 da70976a64e25800… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
da70976a64e25800a19f9ff37b7a9ca834a7f9343454eb53f3504f4892d5cfd6
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Shanelle Dyer · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 87.6% vs market 86.2% · edge 1.5pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 04fcc75142f09810… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
04fcc75142f09810dece460c82fee9774a4926f514192fbfb9c749cac9672709
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Shanelle Dyer" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8764376462100665" market_implied_probability="0.863013698630137" edge="0.013423947579929485" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:58.344Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Shanelle Dyer
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 54.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Elise Reed · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 12.4% vs market 13.8% · edge -1.5pp
Surfaced Aug 16, 2026, 9:17 AM
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 d6f80aebfc7d0a07… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
d6f80aebfc7d0a07585c9538d7471ba4eda100a4361d3cb4e682996eaf7baa20
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Elise Reed" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.12356235378993356" market_implied_probability="0.13698630136986303" edge="-0.013423947579929471" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T20:55:58.375Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Shanelle Dyer
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 46.0% · market not captured.
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 192ed3d2aa37a95c… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
192ed3d2aa37a95c22803cf89711362bb3d70fef9c1fd21abf01fafb4fea5e7e
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 c43afc1a8d8f9fc5… · locked Sat, Aug 22, 4:55 PM EDT
c43afc1a8d8f9fc5672c25d9e51dc7d0d010c7729b788c10fcc8293e912e56ea
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page