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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
OverviewMMACFB

Archive · counted reads, as published

Graded calls. Misses included.

The archive is the product's receipts: where PropsLock stood, the market where one is shown, and where the result landed, bout by bout. Green called it; oxblood missed it. A counted read stays on the record as it was published. See the rolling calibration record →

264 graded bouts across 27 cards · misses included

Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons. A counted read stays on the record as it was published.

· 43 fights had no line and no PropsLock read

graded cards

PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2OCT 16 · 8/10 calledUFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanOCT 10 · 5/10 calledUFC 332: TBD vs TBDOCT 03 · 13/14 calledUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosSEP 26 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 94: ECKERLIN VS. KOZMASEP 26 · 5/6 calledCrypto.com UFC 331SEP 19 · 7/12 calledNoche UFC: Silva vs DelgadoSEP 12 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 93: ROUŠAL vs. MÅGÅRD

Every read is timestamped. We grade counted reads against the official result, and a counted read stays on the record as it was published. MMA reads first recorded after their card’s recorded start time are shown as not counted. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

See the rolling calibration record
SEP 12 · 3/5 called
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSEP 05 · 8/13 called
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAUG 29 · 6/9 called
PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs VieiraAUG 22 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 22 · 8/11 called
UFC 330AUG 15 · 6/12 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 08 · 11/11 called
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs RostaAUG 07 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 01 · 10/14 called
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs ColganJUL 31 · 7/8 called
PFL Washington D C: Jean vs MusaevJUL 26 · 6/7 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 25 · 11/12 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 18 · 7/11 called
PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2JUL 18 · 5/7 called
PFL San Diego: Mckee vs IsbulaevJUL 12 · 5/7 called
UFC 330JUL 11 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 27 · 7/11 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 20 · 8/11 called
UFC White HouseJUN 15 · 5/7 called
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs BonfimJUN 06 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightMAY 30 · 5/6 called
PFL Brussels: Habirora vs HendersonMAY 23 · 4/8 called

JUN 15

UFC White House

5 / 7 called

01

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

marketPropsLock
79+887

✕ Justin Gaethje

02

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane

marketPropsLock
50+454

✕ Ciryl Gane

03

Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi

marketPropsLock
78+684

✓ called

04

Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis

marketPropsLock
79+685

✓ called

05

Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler

marketPropsLock
81+889

✓ called

06

Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus

marketPropsLock
74+478

✓ called

07

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

marketPropsLock
6060

no material move

✓ called