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One calibrated probability per contest — committed before it starts, graded in public after.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
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OverviewMMACFB

Archive · nothing edited after the fact

Every call, graded. Misses included.

The archive is the product's receipts. One beam per bout — where PropsLock stood, where the market closed, and where the result landed. Green called it; oxblood missed it. Nothing is edited after the fact. See the rolling calibration record →

207 graded bouts across 21 cards · misses included

Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons; every PropsLock read and result remains on the record unchanged.

· 17 fights had no line and no PropsLock read

graded cards

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSEP 05 · 8/13 calledUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAUG 29 · 6/9 calledPFL Tampa: Cyborg vs VieiraAUG 22 · 8/10 calledUFC Fight NightAUG 22 · 8/11 calledUFC 330AUG 15 · 6/12 calledUFC Fight NightAUG 08 · 11/11 called

Forecasts were locked before each event and graded against the official result. Nothing edited or removed. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

See the rolling calibration record
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs Rosta
AUG 07 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 01 · 10/14 called
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs ColganJUL 31 · 7/8 called
PFL Washington D C: Jean vs MusaevJUL 26 · 6/7 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 25 · 11/12 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 18 · 7/11 called
PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2JUL 18 · 5/7 called
PFL San Diego: Mckee vs IsbulaevJUL 12 · 5/7 called
UFC 330JUL 11 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 27 · 7/11 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 20 · 8/11 called
UFC White HouseJUN 15 · 5/7 called
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs BonfimJUN 06 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightMAY 30 · 5/6 called
PFL Brussels: Habirora vs HendersonMAY 23 · 4/8 called

SEP 05

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

8 / 13 called

01

Salahdine Parnasse vs Dan Hooker

marketPropsLock
80+282

✓ called

02

Farès Ziam vs Axel Sola

marketPropsLock
58+462

✕ Axel Sola

03

Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

marketPropsLock
67−166

✓ called

04

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

marketPropsLock
67+673

✓ called

05

Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere

marketPropsLock
66+571

✓ called

06

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

marketPropsLock
76+177

✓ called

07

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

marketPropsLock
75+479

✓ called

08

Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos

marketPropsLock
48+452

✕ Matthieu Letho Duclos

09

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

marketPropsLock
77+380

✓ called

10

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

marketPropsLock
67+572

✕ Modestas Bukauskas

11

Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca

marketPropsLock
64+1074

✕ Pavel Andrusca

12

Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes

marketPropsLock
62−755

✕ Fabia Sintes

13

Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

marketPropsLock
55+257

✓ called