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One calibrated probability per contest — committed before it starts, graded in public after.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
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OverviewMMACFB

Archive · nothing edited after the fact

Every call, graded. Misses included.

The archive is the product's receipts. One beam per bout — where PropsLock stood, where the market closed, and where the result landed. Green called it; oxblood missed it. Nothing is edited after the fact. See the rolling calibration record →

207 graded bouts across 21 cards · misses included

Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons; every PropsLock read and result remains on the record unchanged.

· 17 fights had no line and no PropsLock read

graded cards

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSEP 05 · 8/13 calledUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAUG 29 · 6/9 calledPFL Tampa: Cyborg vs VieiraAUG 22 · 8/10 calledUFC Fight NightAUG 22 · 8/11 calledUFC 330AUG 15 · 6/12 calledUFC Fight NightAUG 08 · 11/11 called

Forecasts were locked before each event and graded against the official result. Nothing edited or removed. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

See the rolling calibration record
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs Rosta
AUG 07 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 01 · 10/14 called
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs ColganJUL 31 · 7/8 called
PFL Washington D C: Jean vs MusaevJUL 26 · 6/7 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 25 · 11/12 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 18 · 7/11 called
PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2JUL 18 · 5/7 called
PFL San Diego: Mckee vs IsbulaevJUL 12 · 5/7 called
UFC 330JUL 11 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 27 · 7/11 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 20 · 8/11 called
UFC White HouseJUN 15 · 5/7 called
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs BonfimJUN 06 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightMAY 30 · 5/6 called
PFL Brussels: Habirora vs HendersonMAY 23 · 4/8 called

JUL 11

UFC 330

8 / 10 called

01

Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor

marketPropsLock
71+374

✓ called

02

Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

marketPropsLock
56−155

✕ Paddy Pimblett

03

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✕ Mario Bautista

04

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✓ called

05

Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov

marketPropsLock
5454

no material move

✓ called

06

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

marketPropsLock
90+393

✓ called

07

Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt

marketPropsLock
77+582

✓ called

08

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✓ called

09

Farid Basharat vs John Garza

marketPropsLock
82+789

✓ called

10

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida

marketPropsLock
69+473

✓ called

11

— vs —

pick withheld
bout sides could not be matched · result shown

King Green

12

— vs —

pick withheld
bout sides could not be matched · result shown

Luke Riley