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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
OverviewMMACFB

Archive · counted reads, as published

Graded calls. Misses included.

The archive is the product's receipts: where PropsLock stood, the market where one is shown, and where the result landed, bout by bout. Green called it; oxblood missed it. A counted read stays on the record as it was published. See the rolling calibration record →

264 graded bouts across 27 cards · misses included

Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons. A counted read stays on the record as it was published.

· 43 fights had no line and no PropsLock read

graded cards

PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2OCT 16 · 8/10 calledUFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanOCT 10 · 5/10 calledUFC 332: TBD vs TBDOCT 03 · 13/14 calledUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosSEP 26 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 94: ECKERLIN VS. KOZMASEP 26 · 5/6 calledCrypto.com UFC 331SEP 19 · 7/12 calledNoche UFC: Silva vs DelgadoSEP 12 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 93: ROUŠAL vs. MÅGÅRD

Every read is timestamped. We grade counted reads against the official result, and a counted read stays on the record as it was published. MMA reads first recorded after their card’s recorded start time are shown as not counted. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

See the rolling calibration record
SEP 12 · 3/5 called
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSEP 05 · 8/13 called
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAUG 29 · 6/9 called
PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs VieiraAUG 22 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 22 · 8/11 called
UFC 330AUG 15 · 6/12 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 08 · 11/11 called
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs RostaAUG 07 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 01 · 10/14 called
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs ColganJUL 31 · 7/8 called
PFL Washington D C: Jean vs MusaevJUL 26 · 6/7 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 25 · 11/12 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 18 · 7/11 called
PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2JUL 18 · 5/7 called
PFL San Diego: Mckee vs IsbulaevJUL 12 · 5/7 called
UFC 330JUL 11 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 27 · 7/11 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 20 · 8/11 called
UFC White HouseJUN 15 · 5/7 called
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs BonfimJUN 06 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightMAY 30 · 5/6 called
PFL Brussels: Habirora vs HendersonMAY 23 · 4/8 called

JUL 11

UFC 330

8 / 10 called

01

Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor

marketPropsLock
71+374

✓ called

02

Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

marketPropsLock
56−155

✕ Paddy Pimblett

03

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✕ Mario Bautista

04

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✓ called

05

Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov

marketPropsLock
5454

no material move

✓ called

06

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

marketPropsLock
90+393

✓ called

07

Adrian Yanez vs Cody Garbrandt

marketPropsLock
77+582

✓ called

08

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

market withheld
in-fight leg · 2026-07-17 correction

✓ called

09

Farid Basharat vs John Garza

marketPropsLock
82+789

✓ called

10

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida

marketPropsLock
69+473

✓ called

11

— vs —

pick withheld
bout sides could not be matched · result shown

King Green

12

— vs —

pick withheld
bout sides could not be matched · result shown

Luke Riley