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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
OverviewMMACFB

Archive · counted reads, as published

Graded calls. Misses included.

The archive is the product's receipts: where PropsLock stood, the market where one is shown, and where the result landed, bout by bout. Green called it; oxblood missed it. A counted read stays on the record as it was published. See the rolling calibration record →

264 graded bouts across 27 cards · misses included

Correction (2026-07-17): 16 historical rows carried a market snapshot captured after their bouts had started. Those snapshots are now excluded from market comparisons. A counted read stays on the record as it was published.

· 43 fights had no line and no PropsLock read

graded cards

PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2OCT 16 · 8/10 calledUFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanOCT 10 · 5/10 calledUFC 332: TBD vs TBDOCT 03 · 13/14 calledUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosSEP 26 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 94: ECKERLIN VS. KOZMASEP 26 · 5/6 calledCrypto.com UFC 331SEP 19 · 7/12 calledNoche UFC: Silva vs DelgadoSEP 12 · 0/0 calledOKTAGON 93: ROUŠAL vs. MÅGÅRD

Every read is timestamped. We grade counted reads against the official result, and a counted read stays on the record as it was published. MMA reads first recorded after their card’s recorded start time are shown as not counted. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

See the rolling calibration record
SEP 12 · 3/5 called
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseSEP 05 · 8/13 called
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAUG 29 · 6/9 called
PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs VieiraAUG 22 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 22 · 8/11 called
UFC 330AUG 15 · 6/12 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 08 · 11/11 called
PFL Charlotte: Battle vs RostaAUG 07 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightAUG 01 · 10/14 called
PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs ColganJUL 31 · 7/8 called
PFL Washington D C: Jean vs MusaevJUL 26 · 6/7 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 25 · 11/12 called
UFC Fight NightJUL 18 · 7/11 called
PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2JUL 18 · 5/7 called
PFL San Diego: Mckee vs IsbulaevJUL 12 · 5/7 called
UFC 330JUL 11 · 8/10 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 27 · 7/11 called
UFC Fight NightJUN 20 · 8/11 called
UFC White HouseJUN 15 · 5/7 called
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs BonfimJUN 06 · 10/11 called
UFC Fight NightMAY 30 · 5/6 called
PFL Brussels: Habirora vs HendersonMAY 23 · 4/8 called

MAY 23

PFL Brussels: Habirora vs Henderson

4 / 8 called

01

Baris Adiguzel vs Gustavo Oliveira

marketPropsLock
60−159

✕ Gustavo Oliveira

02

Patrick Habirora vs Benson Henderson

marketPropsLock
9191

no material move

✓ called

03

Taylor Lapilus vs Jake Hadley

marketPropsLock
8585

no material move

✓ called

04

Adam Meskini vs Keweny Lopes

marketPropsLock
6565

no material move

✓ called

05

Rustam Serbiev vs Ashley Reece

marketPropsLock
60−159

✕ Ashley Reece

06

Donegi Abena vs Joe Schilling

marketPropsLock
8989

no material move

✓ called

07

Luca Poclit vs Khamzat Abaev

marketPropsLock
6060

no material move

✕ Khamzat Abaev

08

Marcirley Alves vs Naoki Inoue

marketPropsLock
49+857

✕ Naoki Inoue