Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
18 reads on this card have not graded, and their figures are part of the paid product. All 18 reads closed without a result, so their probability and market figures are not published on this page. All 18 reads carry no receipt, so no hash is printed for them.
moneyline · Max Holloway · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 74.4% vs market 71.0% · edge 3.4pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:02 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Max Holloway
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 72.5% · market 70.0%. PropsLock was 2.5 percentage points higher than the market.
1,340 captures · Tue, Jun 30, 10:15 AM EDT to Sat, Jul 11, 11:42 PM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 71.0%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30T14:15:34.974Z | idle | 67.7% | 67.2% |
| 2026-07-01T18:01:26.169Z | idle | 68.7% | 67.1% |
| 2026-07-03T20:55:33.385Z | idle | 67.9% | 66.3% |
| 2026-07-04T21:00:34.815Z | approaching | 67.7% | 66.1% |
| 2026-07-04T21:05:33.030Z | approaching | 67.7% | 66.1% |
| 2026-07-04T21:10:37.744Z | approaching | 67.7% | 66.1% |
moneyline · Conor McGregor · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 25.6% vs market 29.0% · edge -3.4pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:02 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Max Holloway
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 27.5% · market 30.0%. PropsLock was 2.5 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Benoit Saint Denis · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 55.3% vs market 55.8% · edge -0.5pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Paddy Pimblett
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 52.9% · market 52.3%. PropsLock was 0.6 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Paddy Pimblett · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 44.6% vs market 44.2% · edge 0.4pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Paddy Pimblett
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 47.1% · market 47.7%. PropsLock was 0.6 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Cory Sandhagen · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 58.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Mario Bautista
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 55.9% · market 57.4%. PropsLock was 1.5 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Mario Bautista · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 41.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Mario Bautista
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 44.1% · market 42.6%. PropsLock was 1.5 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Lone'er Kavanagh · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 13.7%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Brandon Royval
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 71.4% · market 67.7%. PropsLock was 3.7 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Brandon Royval · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 86.3%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Brandon Royval
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 28.6% · market 32.3%. PropsLock was 3.7 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Terrance McKinney · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 50.8% vs market 49.5% · edge 1.3pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved King Green
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 52.0% · market 49.4%. PropsLock was 2.6 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · King Green · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 26.0% vs market 34.7% · edge -8.7pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved King Green
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 48.0% · market 50.6%. PropsLock was 2.6 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Robert Whittaker · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 53.6% vs market 54.2% · edge -0.7pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Robert Whittaker
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 51.2% · market 53.3%. PropsLock was 2.1 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Nikita Krylov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 46.4% vs market 45.8% · edge 0.7pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Robert Whittaker
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 48.8% · market 46.7%. PropsLock was 2.1 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Gable Steveson · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 93.5% vs market 90.3% · edge 3.2pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Gable Steveson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 89.1% · market 88.2%. PropsLock was 0.9 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Elisha Ellison · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 6.5% vs market 9.7% · edge -3.2pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Gable Steveson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 10.9% · market 11.8%. PropsLock was 0.9 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Cody Garbrandt · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 18.4% vs market 22.8% · edge -4.4pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Adrian Yañez
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 22.8% · market 23.3%. PropsLock was 0.5 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Adrian Yanez · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 81.6% vs market 77.2% · edge 4.4pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Adrian Yañez
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 77.2% · market 76.7%. PropsLock was 0.5 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Kai Kamaka III · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 24.8% vs market 31.6% · edge -6.8pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Luke Riley
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 28.1% · market 31.2%. PropsLock was 3.1 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Luke Riley · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 75.7% vs market 68.4% · edge 7.3pp
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Luke Riley
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 71.9% · market 68.8%. PropsLock was 3.1 percentage points higher than the market.
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Cody Durden · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 26.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Alessandro Costa
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 31.2% · market 33.0%. PropsLock was 1.9 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Alessandro Costa · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 73.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Jul 4, 2026, 5:04 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Alessandro Costa
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 68.8% · market 67.0%. PropsLock was 1.9 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Farid Basharat · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 88.5% vs market 82.5% · edge 6.0pp
Surfaced Jul 6, 2026, 4:42 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Farid Basharat
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 86.1% · market 84.8%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · John Garza · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 11.5% vs market 17.5% · edge -6.0pp
Surfaced Jul 6, 2026, 4:42 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Farid Basharat
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 13.9% · market 15.2%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points lower than the market.
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Ryan Gandra · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 57.3% vs market 56.7% · edge 0.6pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Ryan Gandra
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 95.0% · market not captured.
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Damian Pinas · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 72.9% vs market 69.1% · edge 3.8pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Damian Pinas
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Cesar Almeida · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 27.1% vs market 30.9% · edge -3.8pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Damian Pinas
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Wang Cong · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 51.6% vs market 51.4% · edge 0.2pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock correct · resolved Wang Cong
moneyline · Kai Kamaka · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 26.6% vs market 33.1% · edge -6.5pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved Luke Riley
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 28.1% · market 31.2%. PropsLock was 3.1 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Terrance Mckinney · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 54.4% vs market 50.5% · edge 3.9pp
Surfaced Jul 10, 2026, 6:14 PM
No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).
PropsLock missed · resolved King Green
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 52.0% · market 49.4%. PropsLock was 2.6 percentage points higher than the market.