Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
70 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
70 reads · receipt manifest e3138418acc3b80c… · locked
e3138418acc3b80c071f2a51d6d448f06b45f7a957faa349b11e89624f8da6b8
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=70
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ebce97572b1bbe4c42745e8d7aadb59154dbaf69479cfaea6b49c6b6687829e4
edd7d40bda9f1dfefc695451483c12669a0acd6916ef390286fb45bf9d05f38b
ee7c91d7ab157c68a2658b069c632048b13f1626ca93a7bbf022105e6afd6b8e
ef946518c2df04533ba7b4b5ee5086255e562bfcf6723684c170d20b12fcdc03
f465e5ca518174bb560e8986fe7355d02fa28130878e594820ec2b47c74327ba
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f8f88b7e28a1cad889adfc1705bfa017ae46c167f1486c0034ea595671acec65
fca69fb42f0cbd427c7395ad4a2ef3947fc7b52fa946d35b5d4a1202ac1f38ad
fecec80959a99ba05e54c81065a32dcef5a4e79ac120cb73313e702f4eef0451
fee76dd5a9aef64100d892ee3585499f804dc9217812003d149e5369e28d12254 reads on this card have not graded, and their figures are part of the paid product. All 4 reads closed without a result, so their probability and market figures are not published on this page.
moneyline · Umar Nurmagomedov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 83.4% vs market 82.5% · edge 0.9pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 025337cc6072c050… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
025337cc6072c050e60d8968e300a0d297c74af30697d2cf1b8a4c19580aa5a3
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Umar Nurmagomedov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8340624582175425" market_implied_probability="0.8282442748091604" edge="0.005818183408382138" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:16.794Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Song Yadong
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
1,232 captures · Sun, Aug 23, 5:30 AM EDT to Sat, Aug 29, 6:55 PM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 82.5%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23T09:30:11.003Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T09:40:11.088Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T09:45:03.613Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T09:55:09.614Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T10:00:03.437Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T10:10:04.177Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-23T10:15:03.329Z |
moneyline · Denise Gomes · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 43.8% vs market 42.9% · edge 0.9pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 2fc4ab30aa1547f8… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
2fc4ab30aa1547f858cbb322f42b8f4166e95d84ba7acd079f02f50eed48b67d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Denise Gomes" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4377351880578466" market_implied_probability="0.4292970597772361" edge="0.008438128280610524" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.178Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Denise Gomes
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 38.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Kai Asakura · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 82.9% vs market 81.5% · edge 1.4pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 b1367c84506ae704… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
b1367c84506ae704a870fd3eeb9c3073f01b6a08da12c6ea6238ee3898c18aae
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Kai Asakura" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8292973326207629" market_implied_probability="0.7953488372093023" edge="0.03394849541146061" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.590Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Kai Asakura
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 20.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Aoriqileng · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 17.1% vs market 18.5% · edge -1.4pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 c158552945ae594e… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
c158552945ae594ef20287807ef0265671f58a20534dc98107e49cd612f8de79
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Aoriqileng" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.17070266737923703" market_implied_probability="0.20465116279069767" edge="-0.03394849541146064" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.556Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Kai Asakura
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 80.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Sumudaerji · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 72.5% vs market 68.8% · edge 3.7pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 edd7d40bda9f1dfe… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
edd7d40bda9f1dfefc695451483c12669a0acd6916ef390286fb45bf9d05f38b
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Sumudaerji" tier="primary" model_probability="0.7250623880194086" market_implied_probability="0.6591928856912924" edge="0.06586950232811617" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.927Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Sumudaerji
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 58.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Alex Perez · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 27.5% vs market 31.2% · edge -3.7pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 ee7c91d7ab157c68… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
ee7c91d7ab157c68a2658b069c632048b13f1626ca93a7bbf022105e6afd6b8e
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Alex Perez" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2749376119805914" market_implied_probability="0.3408071143087074" edge="-0.065869502328116" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.950Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Sumudaerji
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 42.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Bilal Hasan · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 84.2% vs market 85.7% · edge -1.5pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 baa252440695b2d4… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
baa252440695b2d45cebb5cc69c520b42581d36d8f13d08b64b841b38b19e1a8
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Bilal Hasan" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8417561787910497" market_implied_probability="0.8539169634569225" edge="-0.012160784665872781" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:18.797Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Bilal Hasan
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Nilson Rojas · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.8% vs market 14.3% · edge 1.5pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 d1517a63073beb68… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
d1517a63073beb68e440e533e8a18c1b75af35e717842a3d9636bdebe800494f
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Nilson Rojas" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.1582438212089504" market_implied_probability="0.14608303654307744" edge="0.012160784665872948" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:18.829Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Bilal Hasan
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · André Lima · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 76.5% vs market 70.9% · edge 5.6pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 daf193d079f1fb3e… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
daf193d079f1fb3ec5142da2d19ca8ac8b4a47403e905fe44543a5220e71a65d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="André Lima" tier="primary" model_probability="0.7653912429605182" market_implied_probability="0.709073753734864" edge="0.05631748922565416" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:19.205Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved André Lima
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Namsrai Batbayar · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 23.5% vs market 29.1% · edge -5.6pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 4e15916f66b27f4c… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
4e15916f66b27f4c71a6ee2637e8cc71594e152e1ae7cebf43cdbcfd568eb45c
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Namsrai Batbayar" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2346087570394819" market_implied_probability="0.2909262462651361" edge="-0.05631748922565419" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:19.244Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved André Lima
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Rei Tsuruya · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 85.0% vs market 87.9% · edge -2.9pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 b342638d05d952c0… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
b342638d05d952c00b91917f075e83035663399cd42bacd0340a118be6fe6ab2
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Rei Tsuruya" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8503144342966084" market_implied_probability="0.8537050013138302" edge="-0.003390567017221846" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:19.671Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Rei Tsuruya
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Kevin Borjas · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.0% vs market 12.1% · edge 2.9pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 2f71a64e4c3d8704… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
2f71a64e4c3d87045ce4b591aece5fa52a4cb7f1ee79b0e981c2d4eac77f1773
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Kevin Borjas" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.1496855657033917" market_implied_probability="0.1462949986861697" edge="0.003390567017221985" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:19.704Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Rei Tsuruya
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 f465e5ca518174bb… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
f465e5ca518174bb560e8986fe7355d02fa28130878e594820ec2b47c74327ba
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Francesco Nuzzi · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 34.1% vs market 38.4% · edge -4.3pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 caae6925963815c9… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
caae6925963815c94e7e6c5bd153aea3ec0176b4d90768bb86b9e4cc9b941275
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Francesco Nuzzi" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3410154850753522" market_implied_probability="0.38574313647617514" edge="-0.044727651400822965" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-25T15:25:22.818Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Francesco Nuzzi
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Jack Jenkins · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 41.5% vs market 36.7% · edge 4.8pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 2502013ec8333c9c… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
2502013ec8333c9cdc6186b4549b201b69280bd8cff14ad50278cf01e18b9fbc
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jack Jenkins" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4147806088070892" market_implied_probability="0.4321749867701535" edge="-0.017394377963064256" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:20.121Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Sean Woodson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 67.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Sean Woodson · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 58.5% vs market 63.3% · edge -4.8pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 705d003051bf9c61… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
705d003051bf9c6198069fc16a3f2676f7fc553a077cb9c879e5223f5e7cc41c
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Sean Woodson" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5852193911929108" market_implied_probability="0.5678250132298465" edge="0.01739437796306431" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:20.153Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Sean Woodson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 33.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Lawrence Lui · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 80.8% vs market 74.5% · edge 6.3pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 8ee5acecbb2b6cd8… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
8ee5acecbb2b6cd8070812cc0f63b877666c3939ae97d6ada3f7788a983bada0
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Lawrence Lui" tier="primary" model_probability="0.808459040863471" market_implied_probability="0.7394282529600241" edge="0.06903078790344686" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:20.580Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Hector Santiago
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Hector Santiago · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 19.2% vs market 25.5% · edge -6.3pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 85a1b6cef2c5a1cf… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
85a1b6cef2c5a1cf59a9578766feb4186b3a436c44891292a4e94c49828938e8
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Hector Santiago" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.19154095913652913" market_implied_probability="0.2605717470399758" edge="-0.06903078790344669" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:20.613Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Hector Santiago
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 514b67e1c1857eae… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
514b67e1c1857eaebb875ff23e23c6563e50acf46a4c8ba1c9048e8ec48c1271
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Julia Polastri · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 73.4% vs market 67.6% · edge 5.9pp
Surfaced Aug 23, 2026, 5:37 AM
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 81c888014597316a… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
81c888014597316af61b13a4daabbf796d657f9b8709155083df152ca06ffc7d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Julia Polastri" tier="primary" model_probability="0.7344102918065099" market_implied_probability="0.679245283018868" edge="0.055165008787641856" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-25T15:25:23.915Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Julia Polastri
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 98cebcef39d96350… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
98cebcef39d96350241059f19906192c2303c3c0c450d99bca48d2ad1127efde
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 21e3ae54b3a1e6e0… · locked Tue, Aug 25, 11:25 AM EDT
21e3ae54b3a1e6e0aa07741c973d6c94aed5aa5687bfcf0ee97c50383b9f2473
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Song Yadong · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 16.6% vs market 17.5% · edge -0.9pp
Surfaced Aug 26, 2026, 11:42 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 6a1153bf0a309bd9… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
6a1153bf0a309bd9689a2d83b3e2f788bac582b9ed4780c798a7788ee5c685d1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Song Yadong" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.16593754178245734" market_implied_probability="0.17175572519083973" edge="-0.005818183408382388" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:16.823Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Song Yadong
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Yan Xiaonan · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 56.2% vs market 57.1% · edge -0.9pp
Surfaced Aug 26, 2026, 11:44 AM
locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 f8aa775c2a06a264… · locked Sat, Aug 29, 2:55 AM EDT
f8aa775c2a06a2644d840fc9f905aaab6e9117b725aba7f5b8a624b6cff37957
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Yan Xiaonan" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5622648119421533" market_implied_probability="0.5707029402227638" edge="-0.008438128280610524" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-29T06:55:17.155Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Denise Gomes
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 62.0% · market not captured.