Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
38 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
38 reads · receipt manifest 0a91cdb9f78b84b2… · locked
0a91cdb9f78b84b206e7773e67521ff42bbd4a626a4de748f36462091ff6c357
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=38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 · Christian Eckerlin · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 36.9% vs market 38.0% · edge -1.1pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 24c2ec9bc3d4b3c4… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 AM EDT
24c2ec9bc3d4b3c4fac19ce8a8e98b9a16bda348235060fdba07435ec7fc64da
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Christian Eckerlin" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.36936423975985655" market_implied_probability="0.3803116633486648" edge="-0.010947423588808236" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T11:00:17.345Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved David Kozma
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
1,914 captures · Sun, Sep 20, 1:30 AM EDT to Sat, Sep 26, 4:55 PM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 38.0%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20T05:30:16.025Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T05:35:14.121Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T05:40:13.795Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T05:45:13.233Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T05:50:13.639Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T05:55:13.345Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-20T06:00:13.852Z |
moneyline · David Kozma · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 63.1% vs market 62.0% · edge 1.1pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 9cdb8075ad96cb27… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 AM EDT
9cdb8075ad96cb274a0c7a940c57f0099f0e8bea531bf625f437eab2e352f107
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="David Kozma" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6306357602401436" market_implied_probability="0.6196883366513352" edge="0.010947423588808403" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T11:00:17.373Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved David Kozma
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Fedor Duric · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 77.1% vs market 73.8% · edge 3.3pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 705b911d4b1cd127… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
705b911d4b1cd127e05d8bc9fbf03b02c7645089d47842458348d51d8912e133
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Fedor Duric" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.77065772183938" market_implied_probability="0.7379806227530314" edge="0.03267709908634853" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:17.860Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Fedor Duric
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Marc Diakiese · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 22.9% vs market 26.2% · edge -3.3pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 0a31a21b56242915… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
0a31a21b56242915ac2873c6d27f51f45b10f5940542ff0a2efc7dd715c98293
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Marc Diakiese" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.22934227816061994" market_implied_probability="0.2620193772469685" edge="-0.032677099086348554" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:17.884Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Fedor Duric
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Hugo Vach · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 73.3% vs market 70.9% · edge 2.5pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 e3f33ef444c94d8b… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
e3f33ef444c94d8b968e7e2ccb957253b773a0b76dfb7a980e2d83625c7696ef
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Hugo Vach" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7334523008019066" market_implied_probability="0.7085889570552146" edge="0.024863343746691968" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:18.633Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Deniz Ilbay
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Deniz Ilbay · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 26.7% vs market 29.1% · edge -2.5pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 fef2f3cba155881d… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
fef2f3cba155881d7defcda10ca1a5c7980dc5eb9b5877dc4c17530b994c097c
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Deniz Ilbay" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2665476991980933" market_implied_probability="0.29141104294478526" edge="-0.024863343746691968" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:18.656Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Deniz Ilbay
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Tamerlan Dulatov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 89.2% vs market 92.7% · edge -3.5pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 04e24b216870b1c4… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
04e24b216870b1c472f62025ae522297a15cc1d136ad0e9bbf7e3df9be096a8f
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Tamerlan Dulatov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8922094204534848" market_implied_probability="0.9270403542316593" edge="-0.03483093377817448" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:19.380Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Tamerlan Dulatov
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Nikola Janković · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 10.8% vs market 7.3% · edge 3.5pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 316bc79ad0f524c7… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
316bc79ad0f524c7a2919be41d704f7fdd4307fd3611a28de5f53f25b0322817
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Nikola Janković" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.10779057954651526" market_implied_probability="0.07295964576834053" edge="0.03483093377817473" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:19.403Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Tamerlan Dulatov
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Raul Lemberanskij · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 72.1% vs market 69.8% · edge 2.2pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 6ea2400b45c05f80… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
6ea2400b45c05f8012669e59e3b13ed9a67157f7ee59b03360e36b73eb1e08e7
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Raul Lemberanskij" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7207948966809589" market_implied_probability="0.6984343371751972" edge="0.022360559505761657" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:19.841Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Raul Lemberanskij
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Roman Paulus · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 27.9% vs market 30.2% · edge -2.2pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 3d89cdb0b20c75ca… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:55 AM EDT
3d89cdb0b20c75ca41a7f1119f04dcf1efe9be1092002f65861501c42b877948
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Roman Paulus" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2792051033190412" market_implied_probability="0.30156566282480274" edge="-0.022360559505761546" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:55:19.881Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Raul Lemberanskij
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Michael Obodozie · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 66.2% vs market 65.1% · edge 1.2pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 0a6ea9abe0007545… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:50 AM EDT
0a6ea9abe000754523b71392d8fbce34757f0fb0a6033ff694a37a9dc5a750a1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Michael Obodozie" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6624493353963816" market_implied_probability="0.6505699719310306" edge="0.011879363465351012" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:50:20.273Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Michael Obodozie
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Oskar Staszczak · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 33.8% vs market 34.9% · edge -1.2pp
Surfaced Sep 20, 2026, 1:43 AM
locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 dce502f27b4d82c4… · locked Sat, Sep 26, 6:50 AM EDT
dce502f27b4d82c416e3fe9045e20f91971a506d4dd69b78344ff6a684900624
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Oskar Staszczak" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3375506646036183" market_implied_probability="0.34943002806896956" edge="-0.011879363465351234" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb" locked_at="2026-09-26T10:50:20.298Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Michael Obodozie
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.