Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
65 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
65 reads · receipt manifest 01f078698859ba37… · locked
01f078698859ba37f5f3954f24ded3464d06e0be226668cdc762c88b55bb5416
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=65
00a54d81e47864fec41a29fe79afb2c4f48d91403cae254bff0424a3337ec7e6
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fc939a2446427facfd420a2bedb1ed2430819f59ec6b4ba4c54bf692800fb6e43 reads on this card have not graded, and their figures are part of the paid product. All 3 reads closed without a result, so their probability and market figures are not published on this page.
moneyline · Bryan Battle · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 56.6% vs market 56.2% · edge 0.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 16c61bac604cafe2… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
16c61bac604cafe2e820bf76c521fdb6dd8572519b816438ae79add80d95eea9
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Bryan Battle" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5655514780276052" market_implied_probability="0.5537409798708697" edge="0.011810498156735516" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:49.110Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Bryan Battle
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 56.2% · market 56.2%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
1,213 captures · Sat, Aug 1, 3:26 PM EDT to Sat, Aug 8, 7:01 AM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 56.2%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T19:26:49.235Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T19:35:12.705Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T19:40:01.452Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T19:45:03.517Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T19:56:28.429Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T20:06:12.942Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-08-01T20:10:51.031Z |
moneyline · Dalton Rosta · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 43.4% vs market 43.8% · edge -0.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 38556e6b6beda7b4… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
38556e6b6beda7b4433919ce003548a63579383214bff44c82ed91fc6242942c
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Dalton Rosta" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.43444852197239475" market_implied_probability="0.44625902012913016" edge="-0.011810498156735405" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:49.141Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Bryan Battle
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 43.8% · market 43.8%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 61b721b9b12b11b2… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
61b721b9b12b11b2fa27b3fb8982b4774aa5364905afa550325b7df173eda010
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 10e35b44a1df5d1b… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
10e35b44a1df5d1b11b4abd8d0a1dc254b85235657de9cc1191a64f899377926
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Josh Fremd · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 82.2% vs market 77.3% · edge 4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 57fed372a9f30677… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
57fed372a9f30677ebc7b6d7f1a44413b936947fb2b148d0823c8151c388e8b0
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Josh Fremd" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8215562989848828" market_implied_probability="0.7826086956521741" edge="0.03894760333270875" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.140Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Josh Fremd
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 78.4% · market 78.4%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Jhony Gregory · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 17.8% vs market 22.7% · edge -4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 9ecb77f2db345c4a… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
9ecb77f2db345c4aa320940af9214351c204f3dddaf1f9d097868aef1a5c4ee2
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jhony Gregory" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.17844370101511714" market_implied_probability="0.21739130434782608" edge="-0.03894760333270894" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.156Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Josh Fremd
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 21.6% · market 21.6%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Lewis McGrillen · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 90.1% vs market 86.6% · edge 3.6pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 c8eec452607afa86… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
c8eec452607afa86ebffe0348e0bf2d76f99f2aec73bb5ccb333c5852735bb91
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Lewis McGrillen" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.9014927019941424" market_implied_probability="0.8910891089108911" edge="0.010403593083251339" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:49.893Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Lewis McGrillen
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 86.6% · market 86.6%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Brandon Lewis · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 9.9% vs market 13.4% · edge -3.6pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 b4e33548d76c1211… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
b4e33548d76c12111dff779df991cf75e0f39c84f1953a6b80a46b100643fe40
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Brandon Lewis" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.0985072980058576" market_implied_probability="0.10891089108910891" edge="-0.010403593083251311" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:49.912Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Lewis McGrillen
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 13.4% · market 13.4%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 689aae7b519ce520… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
689aae7b519ce5208858ba5512e70f80c26e323015cf3d198fc0c8119336487d
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Simeon Powell · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 38.4% vs market 40.1% · edge -1.7pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 9f802d273ad90b67… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
9f802d273ad90b67ddf386bc810253139cae3a3b6fee193ef7f43506686b6ace
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Simeon Powell" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3839623794818427" market_implied_probability="0.40574282147315854" edge="-0.021780441991315846" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:49.391Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Simeon Powell
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 40.1% · market 40.1%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Trey Waters · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 73.6% vs market 69.7% · edge 3.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 f4ed184a768afdf6… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
f4ed184a768afdf66e51309be0081ad5b70b71343100ac37e74893d4e48ac974
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Trey Waters" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7360171503292291" market_implied_probability="0.7176015473887813" edge="0.01841560294044775" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:52.194Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Trey Waters
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 69.7% · market 69.7%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Trukon Carson · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 26.4% vs market 30.3% · edge -3.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 8c27aa5f96bc331b… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
8c27aa5f96bc331be105e3dfb432a8b6c84799ed1e4d539a99c79f9b110a37b1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Trukon Carson" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.263982849670771" market_implied_probability="0.28239845261121854" edge="-0.01841560294044753" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:52.211Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Trey Waters
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 30.3% · market 30.3%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Cheyden Leialoha · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 72.7% vs market 72.1% · edge 0.6pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 d2dba36897e23480… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
d2dba36897e2348091660a70413b536d37b1413a25a5b620561d0c957769226d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Cheyden Leialoha" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7269414786045125" market_implied_probability="0.7241379310344829" edge="0.002803547570029652" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.609Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Cheyden Leialoha
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 69.9% · market 72.1%. PropsLock was 2.2 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Robbie Ring · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 27.3% vs market 27.9% · edge -0.6pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 a5fbb9af3a1ff4f3… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
a5fbb9af3a1ff4f3d7853ed2ceac86eb0c5e680770ba6dd59375df260f1eea92
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Robbie Ring" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2730585213954874" market_implied_probability="0.27586206896551724" edge="-0.0028035475700298185" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.664Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Cheyden Leialoha
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 30.1% · market 27.9%. PropsLock was 2.2 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Valentin Moldavsky · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 85.9% vs market 82.9% · edge 2.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 3f7e65a502c14e89… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
3f7e65a502c14e896c504b761ef8c44fc9bd0a9e19771418b04f444d46439bd1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Valentin Moldavsky" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8588256660855725" market_implied_probability="0.8231292517006803" edge="0.03569641438489224" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.384Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Bruno Cappelozza
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 82.9% · market 82.9%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Bruno Cappelozza · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 14.1% vs market 17.1% · edge -2.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 9f522fb7d036667c… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
9f522fb7d036667ca40527eb9fcb5dbee7a4ca2419dcbfc9e41d5998d78f4ce7
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Bruno Cappelozza" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.14117433391442755" market_implied_probability="0.17687074829931973" edge="-0.03569641438489218" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.402Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Bruno Cappelozza
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 17.1% · market 17.1%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Denis Goltsov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 84.1% vs market 79.2% · edge 4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 e0954682d8924db2… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
e0954682d8924db238495f0b0ce2b64bab8973ceca74a515ebfeebcc955dccbb
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Denis Goltsov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8411743172397543" market_implied_probability="0.8204419889502762" edge="0.02073232828947813" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.358Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Denis Goltsov
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 79.2% · market 79.2%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Hasan Mezhiev · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.9% vs market 20.8% · edge -4.9pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 71480b7e4188f435… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
71480b7e4188f435c3476058ef39a87f171c9cf13457294db83b3f18d9128bd9
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Hasan Mezhiev" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.15882568276024567" market_implied_probability="0.17955801104972374" edge="-0.020732328289478075" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.377Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Denis Goltsov
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 20.8% · market 20.8%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Cheyanne Bowers · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 81.9% vs market 77.5% · edge 4.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 c0afd42dbe6d97b2… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
c0afd42dbe6d97b2ae98c28410ccd1920f9c1af54a5d36bc164f8348ba8dc38d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Cheyanne Bowers" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.818599029578315" market_implied_probability="0.7747747747747749" edge="0.04382425480354013" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.882Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Cheyanne Bowers
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 77.5% · market 77.5%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Elora Dana · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 18.1% vs market 22.5% · edge -4.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 d44447f9c0d2fd62… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
d44447f9c0d2fd623f306c4d93d51690570ad234b5015686a962a5e03672089d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Elora Dana" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.18140097042168513" market_implied_probability="0.22522522522522523" edge="-0.0438242548035401" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:50.898Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Cheyanne Bowers
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 22.5% · market 22.5%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Michael Boylan · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 23.3% vs market 28.0% · edge -4.7pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 e8f2a5bb1d3f567b… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
e8f2a5bb1d3f567bcb1c08cc5e8d97000140f574f84267781826f8d754e2da49
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Michael Boylan" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2330050376162027" market_implied_probability="0.27586206896551724" edge="-0.04285703134931454" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.097Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Landry Ward
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 28.0% · market 28.0%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Landry Ward · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 76.7% vs market 72.0% · edge 4.7pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 0f5dd51405544563… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
0f5dd5140554456355170d9b4ac4c0885ef022e6139373aff084f2082c65962b
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Landry Ward" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7669949623837974" market_implied_probability="0.7241379310344829" edge="0.04285703134931451" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.113Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Landry Ward
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 72.0% · market 72.0%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Eduardo Neves · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 40.0% vs market 41.4% · edge -1.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 d59926a7411d76d3… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
d59926a7411d76d3790af3b1e684693869189ed1802895c402c807ac3837abc4
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Eduardo Neves" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3997983354432973" market_implied_probability="0.42704626334519585" edge="-0.02724792790189856" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.910Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Maxwell Djantou Nana
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 41.4% · market 41.4%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Maxwell Djantou Nana · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 60.0% vs market 58.6% · edge 1.4pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 2264dc24782c00d7… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
2264dc24782c00d70d9e00265b2afa6d7284b2de26d40fe14dfaf684ca334048
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Maxwell Djantou Nana" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6002016645567027" market_implied_probability="0.5729537366548043" edge="0.02724792790189834" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.924Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Maxwell Djantou Nana
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 58.6% · market 58.6%. PropsLock was 0.0 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Jonathan Martin · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 58.0% vs market 56.3% · edge 1.7pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 dc6037fe76544f01… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
dc6037fe76544f01e290b107c253129e0c48d003605be426245e46c7368b752e
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jonathan Martin" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5801947358845791" market_implied_probability="0.5785180149558123" edge="0.0016767209287668061" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.631Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Jonathan Martin
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 56.3% · market 56.3%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Wilson Lopshire · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 42.0% vs market 43.7% · edge -1.7pp
Surfaced Aug 1, 2026, 3:32 PM
locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 b4c99e05a87206b5… · locked Fri, Aug 7, 6:55 PM EDT
b4c99e05a87206b5528ee9c92b85a4c94ba5165fdb7414f3cbfad9c3cfb09be9
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Wilson Lopshire" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.41980526411542085" market_implied_probability="0.42148198504418766" edge="-0.0016767209287668061" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-07T22:55:51.648Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Jonathan Martin
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 43.7% · market 43.7%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.