Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
39 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
39 reads · receipt manifest 82a3a8a8932245bb… · locked
82a3a8a8932245bb121553a4b5ab49cf79e15780b955c3d5f3efd4c8f9d06b23
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=39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 · Andrej Kalašnik · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 82.6% vs market 83.7% · edge -1.1pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 07d3bf00aef1be44… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
07d3bf00aef1be4425ebf93fdaff11bd31bcb91145bc4b8c1f647ac15713ab2e
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Andrej Kalašnik" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8259725825988027" market_implied_probability="0.8373301149184027" edge="-0.011357532319600017" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:15.908Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Kennedy Rayomba
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
1,809 captures · Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 AM EDT to Sat, Sep 12, 1:55 PM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 83.7%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06T08:00:13.622Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:05:13.867Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:10:13.912Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:15:13.638Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:20:13.733Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:25:14.000Z | approaching | 50.0% | Not captured |
| 2026-09-06T08:30:13.885Z |
moneyline · Kennedy Rayomba · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 17.4% vs market 16.3% · edge 1.1pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 e8b853d7011e8990… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
e8b853d7011e8990447f8b5c89bdf82a710329a29317e18deee3f2a4b2fff7b7
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Kennedy Rayomba" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.1740274174011974" market_implied_probability="0.1626698850815973" edge="0.0113575323196001" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:15.959Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Kennedy Rayomba
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Vladimír Lengál · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 84.1% vs market 86.5% · edge -2.4pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 13eb0e4b331c0147… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
13eb0e4b331c0147a1f0fda377ce13b5fbeff1e36174176e677befef512c381b
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Vladimír Lengál" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8407679499486116" market_implied_probability="0.8651745988944316" edge="-0.02440664894582001" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:16.341Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Vladimír Lengál
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Maurice Adorf · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.9% vs market 13.5% · edge 2.4pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 fa771610c332c4ef… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
fa771610c332c4efc0e11a1e844282352def36a03e4657a1223ee553ef1d4e1a
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Maurice Adorf" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.15923205005138835" market_implied_probability="0.1348254011055683" edge="0.024406648945820064" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:16.366Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Vladimír Lengál
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Daniel Ligocki · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 63.0% vs market 60.4% · edge 2.6pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 54a4243ea36a38cd… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
54a4243ea36a38cd9deeb4931dedcc8bdff158eb8134cba7ba90f34fe276f7d5
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Daniel Ligocki" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6296069602474686" market_implied_probability="0.6040343668285394" edge="0.025572593418929257" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:17.069Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Daniel Ligocki
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Brajan Przysiwek · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 37.0% vs market 39.6% · edge -2.6pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 f48598acebf17fa7… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
f48598acebf17fa75003911001b193baf4d3e1c914c996b33d540462d333a210
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Brajan Przysiwek" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3703930397525313" market_implied_probability="0.3959656331714605" edge="-0.0255725934189292" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:17.097Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Daniel Ligocki
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Vojtěch Garba · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 81.5% vs market 75.7% · edge 5.8pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 e483aac93c6649e5… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
e483aac93c6649e5faa26d651d078253e3f6f26945eea4fffcee75b5d3858d19
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Vojtěch Garba" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8149605607127253" market_implied_probability="0.7571310458867301" edge="0.05782951482599519" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:17.484Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Robert Lau
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Robert Lau · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 18.5% vs market 24.3% · edge -5.8pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 0fb82331d893d881… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
0fb82331d893d881660ca6bdf72b72ec31236934bf66c48866bc6a4c5735f6f1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Robert Lau" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.18503943928727476" market_implied_probability="0.24286895411326997" edge="-0.057829514825995215" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:17.508Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Robert Lau
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Niamh Kinehan · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 81.8% vs market 77.6% · edge 4.1pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 61059c79fbbc5879… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
61059c79fbbc58798d6f756ffb82272139ecf115b2557f27a5e215c291a1c02c
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Niamh Kinehan" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8175935163950674" market_implied_probability="0.7764402407566638" edge="0.04115327563840354" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:19.115Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Niamh Kinehan
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Alana Cook · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 18.2% vs market 22.4% · edge -4.1pp
Surfaced Sep 6, 2026, 4:22 AM
locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
Receipt sha256 f91afd0bcbfcc390… · locked Sat, Sep 12, 6:50 AM EDT
f91afd0bcbfcc390f30a265e473890f83941472af42ba2e2d8769de8777a7aac
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Alana Cook" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.18240648360493253" market_implied_probability="0.2235597592433362" edge="-0.04115327563840368" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="f552c26a-da55-429a-a7a5-7c91abee328a" locked_at="2026-09-12T10:50:19.162Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Niamh Kinehan
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.