Track record · event
The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.
Recorded receipts
62 reads were recorded before card start. The card has started; this set is locked.
Eligible model-only forecasts count toward winner accuracy, but have no market comparison. Insufficient-data placeholders and retired or replaced reads are not graded. MMA reads first recorded after the card’s recorded start are excluded from the tallies.
62 reads · receipt manifest 11630d6e2137e9a6… · locked
11630d6e2137e9a6b6f77196536d6f00d77546dc42b48d8c232fb5fc97025f98
The manifest is the SHA-256 of a header line, a count line, and every per-read hash below sorted in ascending order — recomputable from exactly what is on this page. It moves if a locked read is edited OR removed, so anyone holding an earlier copy can see whether the set has changed.
Exact manifest text: hash these UTF-8 bytes with SHA-256, with newline separators and no trailing newline.
propsmath-manifest-v1
count=62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 read on this card has not graded, and its figures are part of the paid product. This read closed without a result, so its probability and market figures are not published on this page.
moneyline · Islam Makhachev · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 79.6% vs market 73.7% · edge 5.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:47 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 3dfe28b0789daff0… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
3dfe28b0789daff01b7f22b9e273081d173c49096a25c592acf81f157823aa02
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Islam Makhachev" tier="primary" model_probability="0.7958437401688768" market_implied_probability="0.7387760698996841" edge="0.05706767026919268" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.030Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Islam Makhachev
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 72.3% · market 73.7%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points lower than the market.
1,293 captures · Sun, Aug 9, 5:40 AM EDT to Sun, Aug 16, 9:10 AM EDT. Captures may include different event phases; the locked read and its result are shown above.
Separately recorded closing market: 73.7%.
| Captured | Phase | PropsLock | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T09:40:20.265Z | approaching | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| 2026-08-09T09:50:10.767Z | approaching | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| 2026-08-09T10:01:12.604Z | approaching | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| 2026-08-09T10:10:09.548Z | approaching | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| 2026-08-09T10:15:08.129Z | approaching | 74.1% | 75.6% |
| 2026-08-09T10:25:21.357Z | approaching | 74.1% |
moneyline · Ian Machado Garry · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 20.4% vs market 26.3% · edge -5.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:47 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 e8521853b085dce8… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
e8521853b085dce876f208325c2f2bad4f6c529ec7241926503c7899d17dac4a
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Ian Machado Garry" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.20415625983112312" market_implied_probability="0.2612239301003158" edge="-0.05706767026919268" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.053Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Islam Makhachev
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 27.7% · market 26.3%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Mackenzie Dern · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 67.9% vs market 64.8% · edge 3.1pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 b265568bb78621e6… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
b265568bb78621e6e1867153ec2282f1e7aee95c96648f66dd9f8e8d85c96373
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Mackenzie Dern" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.6791518132369795" market_implied_probability="0.6407618741461062" edge="0.03838993909087329" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.394Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Mackenzie Dern
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 64.4% · market 64.8%. PropsLock was 0.4 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Gillian Robertson · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 32.1% vs market 35.2% · edge -3.1pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 e3581f56d9d17c28… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
e3581f56d9d17c28e741d9e0d9a9a2bf4a72d4189208aa6d4fadb4e4924bca79
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Gillian Robertson" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3208481867630205" market_implied_probability="0.35923812585389375" edge="-0.03838993909087324" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.411Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Mackenzie Dern
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 35.6% · market 35.2%. PropsLock was 0.4 percentage points higher than the market.
locked Wed, Aug 12, 4:00 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 d8a3019ffd25f2f5… · locked Wed, Aug 12, 4:00 PM EDT
d8a3019ffd25f2f58407c542025859b547e2a0d61af21afdafe976eb59aeb299
closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page
moneyline · Charles Johnson · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 43.6% vs market 48.2% · edge -4.6pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 8ca92b43f8b5fcb8… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
8ca92b43f8b5fcb8b886958e00c596d92a6b5a6fdae5c704ca0ada4d4fa017ec
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Charles Johnson" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4360864803632102" market_implied_probability="0.515396797466127" edge="-0.0793103171029168" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.872Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Charles Johnson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 5.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Mansur Abdul-Malik · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 89.4% vs market 84.0% · edge 5.4pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 da469e8d0a6c5128… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
da469e8d0a6c5128958fcba3c17a5eca16f2eeda034dd5f1304939493e548275
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Mansur Abdul-Malik" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8939440077216642" market_implied_probability="0.8458646616541353" edge="0.04807934606752884" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.032Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Dustin Stoltzfus
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 85.3% · market 84.0%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Dustin Stoltzfus · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 10.6% vs market 16.0% · edge -5.4pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 b5d25e2fb79bd055… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
b5d25e2fb79bd055f05e111963469c401f9d7828a5b6e90721b14cfd406c12c2
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Dustin Stoltzfus" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.10605599227833594" market_implied_probability="0.15413533834586465" edge="-0.048079346067528714" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.051Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Dustin Stoltzfus
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 14.7% · market 16.0%. PropsLock was 1.4 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Esteban Ribovics · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 89.5% vs market 86.1% · edge 3.4pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 43bd8d0e7bd656b0… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
43bd8d0e7bd656b013b9c422118862e2c64aa54717d9f689de28d49c6ea2b527
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Esteban Ribovics" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.8952451516375244" market_implied_probability="0.8497219675410499" edge="0.04552318409647449" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.302Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Esteban Ribovics
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 87.3% · market 86.1%. PropsLock was 1.2 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Edson Barboza · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 10.5% vs market 13.9% · edge -3.4pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 6bbf2c28b03fa43e… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
6bbf2c28b03fa43ea1b73a99ea8ef714b549155ce9245ffd49bad1f49ac2a9f4
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Edson Barboza" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.10475484836247562" market_implied_probability="0.15027803245895002" edge="-0.045523184096474406" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.285Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Esteban Ribovics
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 12.7% · market 13.9%. PropsLock was 1.2 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Joel Alvarez · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 82.6% vs market 74.2% · edge 8.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 a661764bc79e6c2e… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
a661764bc79e6c2e2ada84e14fe05d4ca9318563b30c7063941b885acccafa27
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Joel Alvarez" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8262962764759648" market_implied_probability="0.7306975053380175" edge="0.09559877113794735" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.544Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Chidi Njokuani
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 76.0% · market 74.2%. PropsLock was 1.8 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Chidi Njokuani · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 17.4% vs market 25.8% · edge -8.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 3da11e11865622d1… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
3da11e11865622d129848f135ed83c576b7e1591acd6c6032ca33c8d284f2a37
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Chidi Njokuani" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.17370372352403515" market_implied_probability="0.26930249466198236" edge="-0.09559877113794721" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.570Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Chidi Njokuani
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 24.0% · market 25.8%. PropsLock was 1.8 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Jalin Turner · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 46.3% vs market 50.8% · edge -4.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 a9199943299b14c6… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
a9199943299b14c670c5d497fb9166acbde721083910ef359676ca23dafdd6a9
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jalin Turner" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4625578219043956" market_implied_probability="0.5077399380804954" edge="-0.04518211617609985" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.717Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Jalin Turner
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Kauê Fernandes · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 53.7% vs market 49.2% · edge 4.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 febd935fdacc2ad0… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
febd935fdacc2ad07bad889c7e5c5bcd5b1e56b4edc23e0e75214c69f68539ff
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Kauê Fernandes" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5374421780956045" market_implied_probability="0.4922600619195047" edge="0.04518211617609974" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:12.738Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Jalin Turner
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 50.0% · market not captured.
moneyline · Donte Johnson · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 82.4% vs market 75.4% · edge 6.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 6196e70f2afbe676… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
6196e70f2afbe6769c8ff54f6cbee1ae198bac532e87348a827e4485005fde17
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Donte Johnson" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8237303434022194" market_implied_probability="0.7331838565022422" edge="0.09054648689997724" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.132Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Donte Johnson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 77.3% · market 75.4%. PropsLock was 1.9 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Eric McConico · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 17.6% vs market 24.6% · edge -6.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 ab4a399b86bc93bd… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
ab4a399b86bc93bd22c1dce8e37b6935686719272ea5ef8ca69e8511a9d61643
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Eric McConico" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.17626965659778052" market_implied_probability="0.2668161434977579" edge="-0.09054648689997738" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.187Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Donte Johnson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 22.7% · market 24.6%. PropsLock was 1.9 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Vicente Luque · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 48.6% vs market 49.1% · edge -0.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 bad74917cb40c13a… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
bad74917cb40c13a388e18654128a037d209af2926209e6d6d2d6b755b1c71ed
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Vicente Luque" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.48591256776853753" market_implied_probability="0.4910905203136137" edge="-0.005177952545076192" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.434Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Tresean Gore
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 47.8% · market 49.1%. PropsLock was 1.3 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Tresean Gore · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 51.4% vs market 50.9% · edge 0.5pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 186e9a50852fcd30… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
186e9a50852fcd30fca39f69eca6cfee3305612279472dbb61a166e6137b1b4d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Tresean Gore" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.5140874322314625" market_implied_probability="0.5089094796863863" edge="0.0051779525450761366" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.468Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Tresean Gore
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 52.2% · market 50.9%. PropsLock was 1.3 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Rafael Tobias · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 24.8% vs market 28.7% · edge -3.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 213361c9b59c3624… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
213361c9b59c362442f631821284d86c3ec9fcd05415af093d12b2712659015b
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Rafael Tobias" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2480221941843633" market_implied_probability="0.28228774999371536" edge="-0.03426555580935206" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.784Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Lucas Fernando
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 30.5% · market 28.7%. PropsLock was 1.8 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Lucas Fernando · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 75.2% vs market 71.3% · edge 3.9pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 aaf07b8af25af149… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
aaf07b8af25af149599a0084df8e2a8d2a7480669b2b73ddbe8c42be8f196e65
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Lucas Fernando" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.7519778058156368" market_implied_probability="0.7177122500062846" edge="0.0342655558093522" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:14.803Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Lucas Fernando
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 69.5% · market 71.3%. PropsLock was 1.8 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Neil Magny · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 36.6% vs market 41.4% · edge -4.8pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 85f9d34c7791a96a… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
85f9d34c7791a96a6e16213549bccabe8d58e69080e034f5475e80092342f0dd
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Neil Magny" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.3657196008306048" market_implied_probability="0.4228624535315985" edge="-0.05714285270099373" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:15.090Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Neil Magny
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 39.7% · market 41.4%. PropsLock was 1.7 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Ramiz Brahimaj · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 63.4% vs market 58.6% · edge 4.8pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 90e41f76e862c7ea… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
90e41f76e862c7eac6c8ede705144b8c35e4d81421c25eb76b652e334567665d
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Ramiz Brahimaj" tier="primary" model_probability="0.6342803991693953" market_implied_probability="0.5771375464684015" edge="0.05714285270099373" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:15.064Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Neil Magny
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 60.3% · market 58.6%. PropsLock was 1.7 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Myktybek Orolbai · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 91.2% vs market 88.9% · edge 2.3pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 55591823d160d1ef… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
55591823d160d1ef0052eafb010b09fa551ea449795e26d09858922c7ceae90f
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Myktybek Orolbai" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.9124896972642298" market_implied_probability="0.8925619834710743" edge="0.0199277137931555" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:15.436Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Jeremiah Wells
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 89.9% · market 88.9%. PropsLock was 1.0 percentage points higher than the market.
moneyline · Jeremiah Wells · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 8.8% vs market 11.1% · edge -2.3pp
Surfaced Aug 9, 2026, 5:49 AM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 5602566c8da6c399… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
5602566c8da6c39930f20166fc34e4e7d6c0e50c176cf78de7a8eb222d705573
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Jeremiah Wells" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.0875103027357702" market_implied_probability="0.10743801652892561" edge="-0.019927713793155402" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:15.417Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Jeremiah Wells
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 10.1% · market 11.1%. PropsLock was 1.0 percentage points lower than the market.
moneyline · Eduardo Henrique · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 46.3% vs market 51.8% · edge -5.5pp
Surfaced Aug 12, 2026, 4:08 PM
locked Thu, Aug 13, 2:01 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 2f738047a01ec127… · locked Thu, Aug 13, 2:01 PM EDT
2f738047a01ec127b8e4db0526377f32bb431274c8fe9db8835e051138f8b6b1
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Eduardo Henrique" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.4627782504332274" market_implied_probability="0.47391341473828025" edge="-0.011135164305052847" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-13T18:01:36.968Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Charles Johnson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 47.3% · market 47.3%. The two probabilities matched at this capture.
moneyline · Eduardo Chapolin · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 56.4% vs market 48.5% · edge 7.9pp
Surfaced Aug 13, 2026, 10:50 PM
locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
Receipt sha256 1d4737c34260b958… · locked Sat, Aug 15, 5:25 PM EDT
1d4737c34260b958dcc92b6d026084966f29593d5d92bf961fe9b4b2e8508cdc
Receipt payload · five lines withheld
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id=[withheld] market="moneyline" outcome="Eduardo Chapolin" tier="primary" model_probability="0.5639135196367898" market_implied_probability="0.4846032025338729" edge="0.07931031710291692" best_price_american=[withheld] best_price_sportsbook=[withheld] kelly_fraction=[withheld] model_version="a8cbf7de-d2a7-4dc0-b2f4-68c4d8d55b49" locked_at="2026-08-15T21:25:13.853Z" nonce=[withheld]
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Charles Johnson
Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.
Latest capture: PropsLock 95.0% · market not captured.