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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC

Track record · event

PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs Vieira

The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.

Back to the track record

  • moneyline · Eoin Sheridan · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 90.4% vs market 85.4% · edge 5.0pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 0203025d06006ae3… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    0203025d06006ae386cdbf41fdcb82f27fd6db47a3e5238629d22c8e7f6e51fa

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Eoin Sheridan"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.9038461538461539"
    market_implied_probability="0.8536916658581547"
    edge="0.05015448798799915"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.102Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Eoin Sheridan

  • moneyline · James Vake · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 9.6% vs market 14.6% · edge -5.0pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 5b75c775246daace… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    5b75c775246daace736ea3c32c899eac8f920c93ec6f91c4181eee46714e72fa

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="James Vake"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.09615384615384617"
    market_implied_probability="0.14630833414184535"
    edge="-0.05015448798799918"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.129Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Eoin Sheridan

  • moneyline · Gino van Steenis · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 86.7%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 a4458de9379be45d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    a4458de9379be45db4f2004fcee51378784ec35bd4eaf3a0c95c81000cfd5557

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Gino van Steenis"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8674583183399305"
    market_implied_probability="0.6060047096851231"
    edge="0.2614536086548074"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.111Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gino van Steenis

  • moneyline · Robert Watley · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 13.3%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 918e061773f4fa86… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    918e061773f4fa86836c58c539a05d9139c53bcf3bad7f901f43037befa3702e

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Robert Watley"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.13254168166006958"
    market_implied_probability="0.3939952903148769"
    edge="-0.2614536086548073"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.134Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gino van Steenis

  • moneyline · Makkasharip Zaynukov · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 87.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 dbb9f5564883a98a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    dbb9f5564883a98abfe7e9bee7dddbcb250e36544c07487c0263c469174ff8bd

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Makkasharip Zaynukov"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.87942592792627"
    market_implied_probability="0.6031202602138005"
    edge="0.27630566771246945"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.925Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Natan Schulte

  • moneyline · Natan Schulte · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 12.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 5053613c84111a60… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    5053613c84111a601b797c94f6c34a960e2bf5d4d2bc4eab66a8f834707e8d9f

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Natan Schulte"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.12057407207373"
    market_implied_probability="0.3968797397861994"
    edge="-0.2763056677124694"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.946Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Natan Schulte

  • moneyline · Dakota Bush · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 89.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 6b5da6bb6fa031f4… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    6b5da6bb6fa031f4022824c453710d94871b0d9e2dccad6dca5b95d5fe940a63

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Dakota Bush"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.899404534649747"
    market_implied_probability="0.7106215091651985"
    edge="0.1887830254845485"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.218Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Dakota Bush

  • moneyline · Morquez Forest · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 10.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 a0811e87065a421a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    a0811e87065a421a5b2cc47a012680539347b88503ce30fbe88d2dbf636c0b1b

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Morquez Forest"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.10059546535025303"
    market_implied_probability="0.2893784908348015"
    edge="-0.18878302548454845"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.238Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Dakota Bush

  • moneyline · Javid Basharat · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 86.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 523cf54f6e5383db… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    523cf54f6e5383db6d0dfe85fadbd5e928b729b0dda71a7759f46e1518ef80e4

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Javid Basharat"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8610220136128676"
    market_implied_probability="0.6753422222499155"
    edge="0.1856797913629521"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.657Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Javid Basharat

  • moneyline · Movsar Ibragimov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 13.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 f5c2e724cc942c34… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    f5c2e724cc942c34e0a0632d7827388ce02d712556762b7210ccb9bedc49ac5a

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Movsar Ibragimov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.13897798638713246"
    market_implied_probability="0.32465777775008453"
    edge="-0.18567979136295207"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.726Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Javid Basharat

  • moneyline · Cris Cyborg · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 85.0% vs market 80.8% · edge 4.3pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 0aea6870abfff982… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    0aea6870abfff98205e24cf7b49417e42106282dbfff064c45eedc18a2a67c42

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Cris Cyborg"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.850412379389038"
    market_implied_probability="0.8075049619914846"
    edge="0.04290741739755344"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.458Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Cris Cyborg

  • moneyline · Ketlen Vieira · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 15.0% vs market 19.2% · edge -4.3pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 b667b9c05847a4e1… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    b667b9c05847a4e1c67a5d84f0109e42c5052412eb54898742b0d64f3f52efa6

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Ketlen Vieira"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.14958762061096206"
    market_implied_probability="0.19249503800851545"
    edge="-0.04290741739755338"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.478Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Cris Cyborg

  • moneyline · Daniel Marcos · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 79.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 365ce0e1b09269f0… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    365ce0e1b09269f0508d9ef59166909218e85fb204a9e4007711d1bca2d9c694

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Daniel Marcos"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.7919201534350893"
    market_implied_probability="0.5819833705844263"
    edge="0.20993678285066297"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.723Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Daniel Marcos

  • moneyline · Magomed Magomedov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 20.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 ea419766f2edb228… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    ea419766f2edb228f3ad5a5dab7f311140924f5e2749e00e0c833744619d161e

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Magomed Magomedov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.2080798465649107"
    market_implied_probability="0.41801662941557377"
    edge="-0.20993678285066308"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.743Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Daniel Marcos

  • moneyline · Luke Trainer · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 90.3% vs market 80.0% · edge 10.2pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 b6c3ee88bb23db48… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    b6c3ee88bb23db4874c4d205c069b8c3bac55993d66ded21c36cc5a0fdf7c192

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Luke Trainer"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.9027157757913465"
    market_implied_probability="0.8002261550892278"
    edge="0.10248962070211876"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.870Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Luke Trainer

  • moneyline · Roland Dunlap · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 9.7% vs market 20.0% · edge -10.2pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 056baaa32225a03c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    056baaa32225a03cdb3147165daa63b746a4fd24f0dfc9b39aa321c6b3c8ff55

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Roland Dunlap"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.09728422420865342"
    market_implied_probability="0.19977384491077207"
    edge="-0.10248962070211866"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.890Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Luke Trainer

  • moneyline · Taila Santos · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 85.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 342c7a11bf37641a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    342c7a11bf37641a5eba1078e248dfb91a478f750c67c2cc966be12e6d3f7a1d

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Taila Santos"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8583673017127517"
    market_implied_probability="0.5954677348127407"
    edge="0.26289956690001093"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.924Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa

  • moneyline · Sabrinna de Sousa · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 14.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 2dbad1009c8d3a26… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    2dbad1009c8d3a26cfb1170bc8a587147d47a1d71a9ebf89f3074b47f2e9a9ff

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Sabrinna de Sousa"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.14163269828724845"
    market_implied_probability="0.40453226518725927"
    edge="-0.2628995669000108"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.945Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa

  • moneyline · Gadzhi Rabadanov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 91.1% vs market 93.9% · edge -2.8pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 16ea1cd60d894a2d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    16ea1cd60d894a2dd0b3fd71b693c5b642b51dc11ee20988560a5bd91e49599c

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Gadzhi Rabadanov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.9107142857142857"
    market_implied_probability="0.9388078675598851"
    edge="-0.028093581845599402"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.676Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov

  • moneyline · Tracy Reeder · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 8.9% vs market 6.1% · edge 2.8pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM

    figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    Verification details · receipt

    Receipt sha256 268e2d5e7565115c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    268e2d5e7565115c7f7a08e99fb515a79751667e94c55b08c8aeec3c5fabdedf

    Receipt payload · five lines withheld

    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id=[withheld]
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Tracy Reeder"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.08928571428571429"
    market_implied_probability="0.06119213244011483"
    edge="0.028093581845599458"
    best_price_american=[withheld]
    best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
    kelly_fraction=[withheld]
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.696Z"
    nonce=[withheld]

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov