Track record · event
Every recommendation we surfaced for this event, in the order we surfaced them.
moneyline · Eoin Sheridan · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 90.4% vs market 85.4% · edge 5.0pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM
Receipt sha256 0203025d06006ae3… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Eoin Sheridan" tier="primary" model_probability="0.9038461538461539" market_implied_probability="0.8536916658581547" edge="0.05015448798799915" best_price_american=-700 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.11538461538461503" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.102Z" nonce="b0f6009452ab9ffb933cc293174c13b7"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Eoin Sheridan · wikipedia
moneyline · James Vake · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 9.6% vs market 14.6% · edge -5.0pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM
Receipt sha256 5b75c775246daace… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="James Vake" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.09615384615384617" market_implied_probability="0.14630833414184535" edge="-0.05015448798799918" best_price_american=600 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.129Z" nonce="ecf8b09190f61b05a6d7fb12fc5e84a1"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Eoin Sheridan · wikipedia
moneyline · Gino van Steenis · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 86.7%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM
Receipt sha256 a4458de9379be45d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Gino van Steenis" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8674583183399305" market_implied_probability="0.6060047096851231" edge="0.2614536086548074" best_price_american=-170 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.25" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.111Z" nonce="a2000718094fc111887656f8adf321e7"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Gino van Steenis · wikipedia
moneyline · Robert Watley · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 13.3%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM
Receipt sha256 918e061773f4fa86… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Robert Watley" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.13254168166006958" market_implied_probability="0.3939952903148769" edge="-0.2614536086548073" best_price_american=149 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.134Z" nonce="e646125e7a6b358955067f66584ff1b1"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Gino van Steenis · wikipedia
moneyline · Makkasharip Zaynukov · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 87.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM
Receipt sha256 dbb9f5564883a98a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Makkasharip Zaynukov" tier="primary" model_probability="0.87942592792627" market_implied_probability="0.6031202602138005" edge="0.27630566771246945" best_price_american=-168 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0.25" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.925Z" nonce="c3c5584d88f7ca3cb5c1d56565926f0f"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Natan Schulte · wikipedia
moneyline · Natan Schulte · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 12.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM
Receipt sha256 5053613c84111a60… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Natan Schulte" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.12057407207373" market_implied_probability="0.3968797397861994" edge="-0.2763056677124694" best_price_american=157 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.946Z" nonce="ffc6b54cbe19eae0d32793be0225d3ff"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Natan Schulte · wikipedia
moneyline · Dakota Bush · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 89.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM
Receipt sha256 6b5da6bb6fa031f4… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Dakota Bush" tier="primary" model_probability="0.899404534649747" market_implied_probability="0.7106215091651985" edge="0.1887830254845485" best_price_american=-250 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.25" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.218Z" nonce="7bf4a98f03e223fd174d410f4fdd96bf"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Dakota Bush · wikipedia
moneyline · Morquez Forest · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 10.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM
Receipt sha256 a0811e87065a421a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Morquez Forest" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.10059546535025303" market_implied_probability="0.2893784908348015" edge="-0.18878302548454845" best_price_american=250 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.238Z" nonce="0cd4589d171ece63e192e146b361e45e"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Dakota Bush · wikipedia
moneyline · Javid Basharat · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 86.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM
Receipt sha256 523cf54f6e5383db… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Javid Basharat" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8610220136128676" market_implied_probability="0.6753422222499155" edge="0.1856797913629521" best_price_american=-233 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.25" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.657Z" nonce="0c377ff562a781ab98a74778a2c9ec60"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Javid Basharat · wikipedia
moneyline · Movsar Ibragimov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 13.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM
Receipt sha256 f5c2e724cc942c34… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Movsar Ibragimov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.13897798638713246" market_implied_probability="0.32465777775008453" edge="-0.18567979136295207" best_price_american=198 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.726Z" nonce="484c1e5784d96fba1c454ed6e52d37a9"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Javid Basharat · wikipedia
moneyline · Cris Cyborg · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 85.0% vs market 80.8% · edge 4.3pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM
Receipt sha256 0aea6870abfff982… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Cris Cyborg" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.850412379389038" market_implied_probability="0.8075049619914846" edge="0.04290741739755344" best_price_american=-500 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0.05123713816711396" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.458Z" nonce="da2edf242ed0ece600e7cf80d572f096"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Cris Cyborg · wikipedia
moneyline · Ketlen Vieira · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 15.0% vs market 19.2% · edge -4.3pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM
Receipt sha256 b667b9c05847a4e1… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Ketlen Vieira" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.14958762061096206" market_implied_probability="0.19249503800851545" edge="-0.04290741739755338" best_price_american=415 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.478Z" nonce="7d965a8e6a7e336c0c5275bba0a0e2cf"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Cris Cyborg · wikipedia
moneyline · Daniel Marcos · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 79.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM
Receipt sha256 365ce0e1b09269f0… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Daniel Marcos" tier="primary" model_probability="0.7919201534350893" market_implied_probability="0.5819833705844263" edge="0.20993678285066297" best_price_american=-150 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.23990019179386157" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.723Z" nonce="c9a448935058622cf24b522b68dad4d5"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Daniel Marcos · wikipedia
moneyline · Magomed Magomedov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 20.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM
Receipt sha256 ea419766f2edb228… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Magomed Magomedov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.2080798465649107" market_implied_probability="0.41801662941557377" edge="-0.20993678285066308" best_price_american=130 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.743Z" nonce="a63a54ac5c220b63f9bf8e9197c13e9a"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Daniel Marcos · wikipedia
moneyline · Luke Trainer · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 90.3% vs market 80.0% · edge 10.2pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM
Receipt sha256 b6c3ee88bb23db48… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Luke Trainer" tier="primary" model_probability="0.9027157757913465" market_implied_probability="0.8002261550892278" edge="0.10248962070211876" best_price_american=-490 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0.2130115385844725" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.870Z" nonce="bb0a72a724a7e47894a20c5cb111eadb"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Luke Trainer · wikipedia
moneyline · Roland Dunlap · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 9.7% vs market 20.0% · edge -10.2pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM
Receipt sha256 056baaa32225a03c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Roland Dunlap" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.09728422420865342" market_implied_probability="0.19977384491077207" edge="-0.10248962070211866" best_price_american=383 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.890Z" nonce="1d094924c6e051dddd2f455c7f59be53"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Luke Trainer · wikipedia
moneyline · Taila Santos · tier: Top Forecast
PropsLock 85.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM
Receipt sha256 342c7a11bf37641a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Taila Santos" tier="primary" model_probability="0.8583673017127517" market_implied_probability="0.5954677348127407" edge="0.26289956690001093" best_price_american=-148 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0.25" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.924Z" nonce="f12eeafa919340c43c7d9423472b49af"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa · wikipedia
moneyline · Sabrinna de Sousa · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 14.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM
Receipt sha256 2dbad1009c8d3a26… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Sabrinna de Sousa" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.14163269828724845" market_implied_probability="0.40453226518725927" edge="-0.2628995669000108" best_price_american=153 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.945Z" nonce="f1c840f3024f61695dad0cf64cb96207"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa · wikipedia
moneyline · Gadzhi Rabadanov · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 91.1% vs market 93.9% · edge -2.8pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM
Receipt sha256 16ea1cd60d894a2d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Gadzhi Rabadanov" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.9107142857142857" market_implied_probability="0.9388078675598851" edge="-0.028093581845599402" best_price_american=-3500 best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel" kelly_fraction="0" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.676Z" nonce="84bbd33a2b7d610a3eb6e97033feb04a"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock correct · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov · wikipedia
moneyline · Tracy Reeder · tier: Below threshold
PropsLock 8.9% vs market 6.1% · edge 2.8pp
Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM
Receipt sha256 268e2d5e7565115c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT
propsmath-receipt-v1 sport="mma" event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira" market="moneyline" outcome="Tracy Reeder" tier="below-threshold" model_probability="0.08928571428571429" market_implied_probability="0.06119213244011483" edge="0.028093581845599458" best_price_american=1550 best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag" kelly_fraction="0.015264976958525349" model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890" locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.696Z" nonce="73d21fa0ec831d1c491e1375739a8375"
These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.
PropsLock missed · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov · wikipedia