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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
RecordHow accurate PropsLock has beenHow it worksHow the forecasts are built
Search
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PricingPlans and what's includedSign inStart free
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Track record · event

PFL Tampa Cyborg vs Vieira

Every recommendation we surfaced for this event, in the order we surfaced them.

Back to the track record

  • moneyline · Eoin Sheridan · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 90.4% vs market 85.4% · edge 5.0pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM

    Receipt sha256 0203025d06006ae3… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Eoin Sheridan"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.9038461538461539"
    market_implied_probability="0.8536916658581547"
    edge="0.05015448798799915"
    best_price_american=-700
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.11538461538461503"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.102Z"
    nonce="b0f6009452ab9ffb933cc293174c13b7"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Eoin Sheridan · wikipedia

  • moneyline · James Vake · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 9.6% vs market 14.6% · edge -5.0pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 5:46 PM

    Receipt sha256 5b75c775246daace… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 5:46 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="James Vake"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.09615384615384617"
    market_implied_probability="0.14630833414184535"
    edge="-0.05015448798799918"
    best_price_american=600
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T21:46:22.129Z"
    nonce="ecf8b09190f61b05a6d7fb12fc5e84a1"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Eoin Sheridan · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Gino van Steenis · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 86.7%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

    Receipt sha256 a4458de9379be45d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Gino van Steenis"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8674583183399305"
    market_implied_probability="0.6060047096851231"
    edge="0.2614536086548074"
    best_price_american=-170
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.25"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.111Z"
    nonce="a2000718094fc111887656f8adf321e7"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gino van Steenis · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Robert Watley · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 13.3%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

    Receipt sha256 918e061773f4fa86… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:02 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Robert Watley"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.13254168166006958"
    market_implied_probability="0.3939952903148769"
    edge="-0.2614536086548073"
    best_price_american=149
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:02:14.134Z"
    nonce="e646125e7a6b358955067f66584ff1b1"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gino van Steenis · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Makkasharip Zaynukov · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 87.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM

    Receipt sha256 dbb9f5564883a98a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Makkasharip Zaynukov"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.87942592792627"
    market_implied_probability="0.6031202602138005"
    edge="0.27630566771246945"
    best_price_american=-168
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0.25"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.925Z"
    nonce="c3c5584d88f7ca3cb5c1d56565926f0f"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Natan Schulte · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Natan Schulte · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 12.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 6:37 PM

    Receipt sha256 5053613c84111a60… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 6:37 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Natan Schulte"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.12057407207373"
    market_implied_probability="0.3968797397861994"
    edge="-0.2763056677124694"
    best_price_american=157
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T22:37:14.946Z"
    nonce="ffc6b54cbe19eae0d32793be0225d3ff"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Natan Schulte · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Dakota Bush · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 89.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM

    Receipt sha256 6b5da6bb6fa031f4… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Dakota Bush"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.899404534649747"
    market_implied_probability="0.7106215091651985"
    edge="0.1887830254845485"
    best_price_american=-250
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.25"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.218Z"
    nonce="7bf4a98f03e223fd174d410f4fdd96bf"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Dakota Bush · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Morquez Forest · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 10.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:11 PM

    Receipt sha256 a0811e87065a421a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:11 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Morquez Forest"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.10059546535025303"
    market_implied_probability="0.2893784908348015"
    edge="-0.18878302548454845"
    best_price_american=250
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:11:51.238Z"
    nonce="0cd4589d171ece63e192e146b361e45e"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Dakota Bush · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Javid Basharat · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 86.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM

    Receipt sha256 523cf54f6e5383db… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Javid Basharat"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8610220136128676"
    market_implied_probability="0.6753422222499155"
    edge="0.1856797913629521"
    best_price_american=-233
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.25"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.657Z"
    nonce="0c377ff562a781ab98a74778a2c9ec60"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Javid Basharat · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Movsar Ibragimov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 13.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 7:37 PM

    Receipt sha256 f5c2e724cc942c34… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 7:37 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Movsar Ibragimov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.13897798638713246"
    market_implied_probability="0.32465777775008453"
    edge="-0.18567979136295207"
    best_price_american=198
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-22T23:37:01.726Z"
    nonce="484c1e5784d96fba1c454ed6e52d37a9"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Javid Basharat · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Cris Cyborg · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 85.0% vs market 80.8% · edge 4.3pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM

    Receipt sha256 0aea6870abfff982… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Cris Cyborg"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.850412379389038"
    market_implied_probability="0.8075049619914846"
    edge="0.04290741739755344"
    best_price_american=-500
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0.05123713816711396"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.458Z"
    nonce="da2edf242ed0ece600e7cf80d572f096"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Cris Cyborg · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Ketlen Vieira · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 15.0% vs market 19.2% · edge -4.3pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:03 PM

    Receipt sha256 b667b9c05847a4e1… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:03 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Ketlen Vieira"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.14958762061096206"
    market_implied_probability="0.19249503800851545"
    edge="-0.04290741739755338"
    best_price_american=415
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:03:28.478Z"
    nonce="7d965a8e6a7e336c0c5275bba0a0e2cf"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Cris Cyborg · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Daniel Marcos · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 79.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM

    Receipt sha256 365ce0e1b09269f0… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Daniel Marcos"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.7919201534350893"
    market_implied_probability="0.5819833705844263"
    edge="0.20993678285066297"
    best_price_american=-150
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.23990019179386157"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.723Z"
    nonce="c9a448935058622cf24b522b68dad4d5"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Daniel Marcos · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Magomed Magomedov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 20.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 8:12 PM

    Receipt sha256 ea419766f2edb228… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 8:12 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Magomed Magomedov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.2080798465649107"
    market_implied_probability="0.41801662941557377"
    edge="-0.20993678285066308"
    best_price_american=130
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T00:12:16.743Z"
    nonce="a63a54ac5c220b63f9bf8e9197c13e9a"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Daniel Marcos · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Luke Trainer · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 90.3% vs market 80.0% · edge 10.2pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM

    Receipt sha256 b6c3ee88bb23db48… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Luke Trainer"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.9027157757913465"
    market_implied_probability="0.8002261550892278"
    edge="0.10248962070211876"
    best_price_american=-490
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0.2130115385844725"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.870Z"
    nonce="bb0a72a724a7e47894a20c5cb111eadb"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Luke Trainer · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Roland Dunlap · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 9.7% vs market 20.0% · edge -10.2pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:12 PM

    Receipt sha256 056baaa32225a03c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:12 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Roland Dunlap"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.09728422420865342"
    market_implied_probability="0.19977384491077207"
    edge="-0.10248962070211866"
    best_price_american=383
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:12:29.890Z"
    nonce="1d094924c6e051dddd2f455c7f59be53"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Luke Trainer · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Taila Santos · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 85.8%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM

    Receipt sha256 342c7a11bf37641a… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Taila Santos"
    tier="primary"
    model_probability="0.8583673017127517"
    market_implied_probability="0.5954677348127407"
    edge="0.26289956690001093"
    best_price_american=-148
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0.25"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.924Z"
    nonce="f12eeafa919340c43c7d9423472b49af"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Sabrinna de Sousa · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 14.2%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 9:38 PM

    Receipt sha256 2dbad1009c8d3a26… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 9:38 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Sabrinna de Sousa"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.14163269828724845"
    market_implied_probability="0.40453226518725927"
    edge="-0.2628995669000108"
    best_price_american=153
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T01:38:48.945Z"
    nonce="f1c840f3024f61695dad0cf64cb96207"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Sabrinna de Sousa · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Gadzhi Rabadanov · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 91.1% vs market 93.9% · edge -2.8pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM

    Receipt sha256 16ea1cd60d894a2d… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Gadzhi Rabadanov"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.9107142857142857"
    market_implied_probability="0.9388078675598851"
    edge="-0.028093581845599402"
    best_price_american=-3500
    best_price_sportsbook="FanDuel"
    kelly_fraction="0"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.676Z"
    nonce="84bbd33a2b7d610a3eb6e97033feb04a"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov · wikipedia

  • moneyline · Tracy Reeder · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 8.9% vs market 6.1% · edge 2.8pp

    Surfaced Aug 22, 2026, 10:11 PM

    Receipt sha256 268e2d5e7565115c… · figures last set Sat, Aug 22, 10:11 PM EDT

    Receipt payload · recompute the hash
    propsmath-receipt-v1
    sport="mma"
    event_id="https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/145227-pfl-tampa-cyborg-vs-vieira"
    market="moneyline"
    outcome="Tracy Reeder"
    tier="below-threshold"
    model_probability="0.08928571428571429"
    market_implied_probability="0.06119213244011483"
    edge="0.028093581845599458"
    best_price_american=1550
    best_price_sportsbook="BetOnline.ag"
    kelly_fraction="0.015264976958525349"
    model_version="ef246e28-e865-45b8-9727-33f126f4c890"
    locked_at="2026-08-23T02:11:46.696Z"
    nonce="73d21fa0ec831d1c491e1375739a8375"

    These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline. Run them through SHA-256 (shasum -a 256) and you get the receipt above. The field list and the full recipe are on the methodology page.

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gadzhi Rabadanov · wikipedia