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PropsMath

Calibrated sports reads on a timestamped public record, misses included.

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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC

Track record · event

PFL Austin Van: Steenis vs Eblen 2

The reads we recorded for this event that carry a market line.

Back to the track record

  • moneyline · Borena Tsertsvadze · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 87.0%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 5:47 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Victoria Alba

  • moneyline · Victoria Alba · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 13.0%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 5:47 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Victoria Alba

  • moneyline · Jackson Glass · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 96.7% vs market 92.0% · edge 4.7pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 6:15 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Jackson Glass

  • moneyline · Zak Flessas · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 3.3% vs market 8.0% · edge -4.7pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 6:15 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Jackson Glass

  • moneyline · Mia Grawe · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 24.6% vs market 24.4% · edge 0.2pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 6:23 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Ashley Thiner

  • moneyline · Ashley Thiner · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 75.4% vs market 75.6% · edge -0.2pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 6:23 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Ashley Thiner

  • moneyline · Biaggio Ali Walsh · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 11.3% vs market 15.5% · edge -4.3pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 7:32 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gamid Khizriev

  • moneyline · Gamid Khizriev · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 88.7% vs market 84.5% · edge 4.3pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 7:32 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gamid Khizriev

  • moneyline · Johnny Eblen · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 84.2% vs market 82.3% · edge 1.9pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 8:12 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Johnny Eblen

  • moneyline · Impa Kasanganay · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 15.8% vs market 17.7% · edge -1.9pp

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 8:12 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Johnny Eblen

  • moneyline · Jesus Pinedo · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 97.1%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 8:16 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Jesus Pinedo

  • moneyline · Joey Ruquet · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 2.9%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 8:16 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Jesus Pinedo

  • moneyline · Lewis McGrillen · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 92.5%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 9:20 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Rafael do Nascimento

  • moneyline · Rafael do Nascimento · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 7.5%Market snapshot recorded after the bout began — excluded from PropsLock-vs-market comparison. PropsLock read and result unchanged.

    Surfaced Jul 18, 2026, 9:20 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Rafael do Nascimento