UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

1 read on this card has not graded, and its figures are part of the paid product. This read closed without a result, so its probability and market figures are not published on this page.

• moneyline · Raul Rosas Jr. · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 61.0% vs market 57.4% · edge 3.6pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 2c99e7389ff7e34f… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  2c99e7389ff7e34f358bdc642aa482653c718c38bcca97e59f17a5ea02c41b71

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Raul Rosas Jr."
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6098162778028172"
  market_implied_probability="0.5740690064080637"
  edge="0.03574727139475353"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.205Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Raul Rosas Jr.

  Probability history · Raul Rosas Jr.

  Recorded PropsLock and market probabilities over time. Lines connect captures; they do not add readings between them.

  Latest capture: PropsLock 40.5% · market 34.7%. PropsLock was 5.7 percentage points higher than the market.

  ━ ● PropsLock┄ ○ Market

• moneyline · Raoni Barcelos · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 39.0% vs market 42.6% · edge -3.6pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 e7e72773bac73f7f… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  e7e72773bac73f7fb3529cf8514a9b413bab9ff8b965caa6eaa48d85bc95f7ff

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Raoni Barcelos"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.39018372219718284"
  market_implied_probability="0.4259309935919364"
  edge="-0.03574727139475359"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.239Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Raul Rosas Jr.

  Probability history · Raoni Barcelos

• moneyline · Norma Dumont · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 36.1% vs market 39.5% · edge -3.4pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 874319d724768613… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  874319d72476861343e3e11796d3b50edff7000f40b929930b0c71da4e6e48ae

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Norma Dumont"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.3612087653579064"
  market_implied_probability="0.4029192641021742"
  edge="-0.0417104987442678"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.361Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Ailin Perez

  Probability history · Norma Dumont

• moneyline · Ailin Perez · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 63.9% vs market 60.5% · edge 3.4pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 0ba98e691469606f… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  0ba98e691469606fede4b8b07e369c4cf702aab942f67dac3958787c33f7a3e8

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Ailin Perez"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6387912346420936"
  market_implied_probability="0.5970807358978257"
  edge="0.04171049874426791"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.392Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Ailin Perez

  Probability history · Ailin Perez

• moneyline · Luis Hernandez · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 72.3% vs market 67.9% · edge 4.4pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 1b6a0927447fe0b3… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  1b6a0927447fe0b35f9826e7f0b98de6aba2bb91cd66b816e2e7217942751a7a

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Luis Hernandez"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.722932873698396"
  market_implied_probability="0.6783666620053139"
  edge="0.04456621169308206"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.507Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Luis Hernandez

  Probability history · Luis Hernandez

• moneyline · Sedriques Dumas · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 27.7% vs market 32.1% · edge -4.4pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 6e5a06f4ebb44ecb… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  6e5a06f4ebb44ecbf918f145737b8a1443a277b3c35e5545a43e8c1f22733c6a

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Sedriques Dumas"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.2770671263016039"
  market_implied_probability="0.3216333379946861"
  edge="-0.04456621169308217"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.541Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Luis Hernandez

  Probability history · Sedriques Dumas

• moneyline · Melissa Amaya · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 34.0% vs market 36.3% · edge -2.3pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 789f03d8df459e82… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  789f03d8df459e82c93d2ef02151a1a171e528f33a35866a2eaef3a7f596ed33

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Melissa Amaya"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.34000430141601906"
  market_implied_probability="0.3632537313064429"
  edge="-0.023249429890423834"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.710Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Valesca Machado

  Probability history · Melissa Amaya

• moneyline · Valesca Machado · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 66.0% vs market 63.7% · edge 2.3pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 9ca5a14f43a0fd56… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  9ca5a14f43a0fd5608189dbd39e5b5d678037ce682f78c2f1a7d561d22282766

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Valesca Machado"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6599956985839809"
  market_implied_probability="0.6367462686935571"
  edge="0.02324942989042378"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.742Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Valesca Machado

  Probability history · Valesca Machado

• moneyline · Brady Hiestand · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 22.3% vs market 29.4% · edge -7.1pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 2c977ed5e8fdaaf7… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  2c977ed5e8fdaaf708b337b7c4db804091008fa2b1a89ecadc0c8d04e8dc2905

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Brady Hiestand"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.22322530793133732"
  market_implied_probability="0.23809523809523808"
  edge="-0.014869930163900758"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.855Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Brady Hiestand

  Probability history · Brady Hiestand

• moneyline · Rinya Nakamura · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 77.7% vs market 70.6% · edge 7.1pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 140fb5e9d200a474… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  140fb5e9d200a474546ade54e162a9be8c3e0f0d7897675c6edb9ebec21e8e4c

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Rinya Nakamura"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.7767746920686628"
  market_implied_probability="0.7619047619047619"
  edge="0.014869930163900924"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:01.894Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Brady Hiestand

  Probability history · Rinya Nakamura

• moneyline · Rodolfo Vieira · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 62.0% vs market 60.4% · edge 1.7pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 3a40f45a4d38a24f… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  3a40f45a4d38a24f6d7133bf232fe460213feff67e3c3d8ec293276a7d2e8d19

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Rodolfo Vieira"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6204023584915913"
  market_implied_probability="0.6037569709421778"
  edge="0.01664538754941347"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.015Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Rodolfo Vieira

  Probability history · Rodolfo Vieira

• moneyline · Robert Bryczek · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 38.0% vs market 39.6% · edge -1.7pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 b4e86e6b65e6a653… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  b4e86e6b65e6a6531a635c2f18341956bc127b0dc81335ca980064ad7bff0933

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Robert Bryczek"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.37959764150840863"
  market_implied_probability="0.3962430290578222"
  edge="-0.01664538754941358"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.053Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Rodolfo Vieira

  Probability history · Robert Bryczek

• moneyline · Rodolfo Bellato · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 64.0% vs market 61.5% · edge 2.5pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 be34cb5462c4ca09… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  be34cb5462c4ca09d7323d5f562bb45e196f4e8e5558c81e5948e81861ec32d6

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Rodolfo Bellato"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6395903671146621"
  market_implied_probability="0.6145233727623505"
  edge="0.025066994352311633"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.178Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Christian Edwards

  Probability history · Rodolfo Bellato

• moneyline · Christian Edwards · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 36.0% vs market 38.5% · edge -2.5pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 df41ee04cd0a62f7… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  df41ee04cd0a62f752d6e33f9607179dbc847276dff25944dce8292ff0efda4a

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Christian Edwards"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.360409632885338"
  market_implied_probability="0.3854766272376494"
  edge="-0.02506699435231141"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.214Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Christian Edwards

  Probability history · Christian Edwards

• moneyline · Montel Jackson · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 69.0% vs market 66.9% · edge 2.1pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 eda68394dcab5ce9… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  eda68394dcab5ce9a8d7540e07f3f6253ac02595ba3b9f26f75cad720b07b968

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Montel Jackson"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.6898306721223073"
  market_implied_probability="0.6682416809088167"
  edge="0.02158899121349056"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.436Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Montel Jackson

  Probability history · Montel Jackson

• moneyline · Ricky Simon · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 31.0% vs market 33.1% · edge -2.1pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 e5968a81a01eacf0… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  e5968a81a01eacf0100ee9ecf8ae2dc751b534328ef63596eb7df7babd231dd3

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Ricky Simon"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.31016932787769275"
  market_implied_probability="0.3317583190911833"
  edge="-0.02158899121349056"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.475Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Montel Jackson

  Probability history · Ricky Simon

• recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 328abcde214cfc42… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  328abcde214cfc4271acb318624b90af591bd81338317066342e98141de13136

  closed without a result — probability and market figures are not published on this page

• moneyline · Heili Alateng · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 23.2% vs market 25.8% · edge -2.7pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 762432c39ab665b2… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  762432c39ab665b295b7a965472b55e06dd2cfd3d1c9a8f76a5cca75e604a38a

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Heili Alateng"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.23162952437622017"
  market_implied_probability="0.2591283863368669"
  edge="-0.027498861960646742"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.641Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Heili Alateng

  Probability history · Heili Alateng

• moneyline · Vanessa Demopoulos · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 15.5% vs market 13.7% · edge 1.8pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 68c5df29ad0fdaa9… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  68c5df29ad0fdaa93bcb89738a2e14a8cea60c2c60ca9bceacba898472bf93e4

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Vanessa Demopoulos"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.15517919698220164"
  market_implied_probability="0.13698630136986303"
  edge="0.01819289561233861"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.771Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Yazmin Jauregui

  Probability history · Vanessa Demopoulos

• moneyline · Yazmin Jauregui · tier: Below threshold

  PropsLock 84.5% vs market 86.3% · edge -1.8pp

  Surfaced Sep 26, 2026, 5:04 PM

  recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  Verification details · receipt

  Receipt sha256 ce36c928784a50fa… · recorded mid-card Sat, Sep 26, 5:04 PM EDT · not counted

  ce36c928784a50fa6b96ceb2cf4051107efa1d37f6ae898ee7cb5407dfc772f6

  Receipt payload · five lines withheld

  propsmath-receipt-v1
  sport="mma"
  event_id=[withheld]
  market="moneyline"
  outcome="Yazmin Jauregui"
  tier="below-threshold"
  model_probability="0.8448208030177985"
  market_implied_probability="0.863013698630137"
  edge="-0.0181928956123385"
  best_price_american=[withheld]
  best_price_sportsbook=[withheld]
  kelly_fraction=[withheld]
  model_version="2e421983-8d33-4eeb-95d9-287d9a5d28eb"
  locked_at="2026-09-26T21:04:02.809Z"
  nonce=[withheld]

  These are the exact bytes the hash was taken over — UTF-8, newline-separated, no trailing newline — except five lines this public page withholds, each marked [withheld]: the card's internal ID, the best available price, the sportsbook that offered it, the Kelly fraction, and the nonce. The card's internal ID is withheld because on some cards it is another website's address. The nonce is withheld with the price, the sportsbook and the Kelly fraction because those figures have only a small number of possible values: with the nonce printed, anyone could recover them by trying each possibility against the hash. The hash above still covers all five real values, so it cannot be recomputed from this page alone. The field list is on the methodology page.

  Recorded mid-card · not counted · resolved Yazmin Jauregui

  Probability history · Yazmin Jauregui