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PropsLock is the PropsMath forecast model. PropsMath publishes analytical model probabilities for research and informational purposes. This is not a sportsbook. We do not accept wagers, hold customer funds, or facilitate betting. Past model performance does not predict future results. 21+.

© PropsMathBuilt by DevDudeJeremy LLC
RecordHow accurate PropsLock has beenHow it worksHow the forecasts are built
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Track record · event

PFL Brussels Habirora vs Henderson

Every recommendation we surfaced for this event, in the order we surfaced them.

Back to the track record

  • moneyline · Baris Adiguzel · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 59.4% vs market 59.6% · edge -0.2pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Gustavo Oliveira · espn

  • moneyline · Gustavo Oliveira · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 40.6% vs market 40.4% · edge 0.2pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Gustavo Oliveira · espn

  • moneyline · Benson Henderson · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 8.7% vs market 9.4% · edge -0.7pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Patrick Habirora · espn

  • moneyline · Taylor Lapilus · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 85.3% vs market 84.9% · edge 0.4pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Taylor Lapilus · espn

  • moneyline · Jake Hadley · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 14.7% vs market 15.1% · edge -0.4pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Taylor Lapilus · espn

  • moneyline · Keweny Lopes · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 35.4% vs market 35.0% · edge 0.5pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Adam Meskini · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Ashley Reece · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 41.6% vs market 41.1% · edge 0.5pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Ashley Reece · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Donegi Abena · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 89.4% vs market 89.1% · edge 0.3pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Donegi Abena · espn

  • moneyline · Joe Schilling · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 10.6% vs market 10.9% · edge -0.3pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Donegi Abena · espn

  • moneyline · Khamzat Abaev · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 40.0% vs market 40.4% · edge -0.4pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Khamzat Abaev · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Luca Poclit · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 60.0% vs market 59.6% · edge 0.4pp

    Surfaced May 22, 2026, 9:57 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Khamzat Abaev · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Patrick Habirora · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 91.3% vs market 90.6% · edge 0.7pp

    Surfaced May 23, 2026, 4:01 AM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Patrick Habirora · espn

  • moneyline · Rustam Serbiev · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 58.8% vs market 59.6% · edge -0.8pp

    Surfaced May 23, 2026, 4:01 AM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Ashley Reece · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Adam Meskini · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 64.6% vs market 65.0% · edge -0.5pp

    Surfaced May 23, 2026, 4:01 AM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Adam Meskini · ufc-stats

  • moneyline · Marcirley Alves · tier: Top Forecast

    PropsLock 57.3% vs market 49.3% · edge 8.0pp

    Surfaced May 23, 2026, 3:49 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✕ PropsLock missed · resolved Naoki Inoue · espn

  • moneyline · Naoki Inoue · tier: Below threshold

    PropsLock 39.4% vs market 50.7% · edge -11.3pp

    Surfaced May 23, 2026, 3:49 PM

    No receipt — this read predates the receipt mechanism (receipts begin 2026-08-06).

    ✓ PropsLock correct · resolved Naoki Inoue · espn